The Boston Red Sox host the Toronto Blue Jays on June 16, 2026. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NESN.
The Blue Jays are favored by -120 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Red Sox are -100 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Blue Jays vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Prediction
- Blue Jays vs Red Sox Pick: Payton Tolle Over 5.5 Outs
My Blue Jays vs Red Sox best bet is a prop on Boston's Starting Pitcher Payton Tolle. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -175 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -120 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +145 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -100 |
- Blue Jays vs Red Sox moneyline: Blue Jays -120, Red Sox -100
- Blue Jays vs Red Sox over/under: 7.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Blue Jays vs Red Sox spread: Blue Jays -1.5 (+145), Red Sox +1.5 (-175)
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Probable Pitchers
| RHP Dylan Cease (TOR) | Stat | LHP Payton Tolle (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | W-L | 3-3 |
| 2.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.8 |
| 2.91 / 2.97 | ERA / xERA | 2.70/ 2.50 |
| 2.35 / 2.42 | FIP / xFIP | 2.71 / 3.89 |
| 27.1% | K-BB% | 18.6% |
| 45.9% | GB% | 34.8% |
| .331 | BABIP | .275 |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 115 |
| 100 | Location+ | 95 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox MLB Betting Preview
The Toronto Blue Jays come into this matchup with a 34-38 record and are 13-20 on the road. While Toronto has struggled away from home this season, they received a big boost on Friday with the return of Alejandro Kirk.
Playing in his first game after missing two months with a thumb fracture, Kirk wasted no time making an impact. The catcher went 3-for-3 with two RBIs, providing a spark for a lineup that has been searching for consistency.
The Boston Red Sox, meanwhile, are 29-40 on the season and 12-22 at home. Despite their overall record, they’ll have one of their most reliable arms on the mound for this matchup.
Payton Tolle has been outstanding at home this year, posting a 2.28 ERA across five starts. He’s also recorded 36 strikeouts in 27 2/3 innings, showing the swing-and-miss ability that has made him one of Boston’s most effective pitchers.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Pick, Betting Analysis
Payton Tolle has a decent strikeout upside this season, using his power arsenal to consistently put hitters away when he's commanding the zone.
He’s cleared the 5.5-strikeout line in four of his nine appearances this year, showing he can reach this number whenever he works deep enough into a game.
With his strikeout potential and ability to miss bats at a high rate, backing Payton Tolle of the Boston Red Sox to go over 5.5 strikeouts is a compelling play in this matchup.
Pick: Payton Tolle Over 5.5 Outs
