Braves vs. Dodgers MLB Odds, Picks: 3 Bets For NLCS Game 5, Including Moneyline (Oct. 21)
Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images. Pictured: Will Smith
- Wondering how to bet NCLS Game 5? After examining the Dodgers vs. Braves odds, our MLB analysts make their picks.
- With a trip to the World Series just a win away for Atlanta, find out why we're betting on the Braves to do it.
- In addition to the moneyline, we're also targeting the over on Max Fried's prop.
Braves vs. Dodgers MLB Odds
| Braves Odds | +125 |
| Dodgers Odds | -145 |
| Over/Under | 8 (-105 / -115) |
| Time | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Braves can clinch their first NL pennant since 1999 with a win over the Dodgers on Thusday night in Los Angeles.
Atlanta will send ace Max Fried to the mound, while Los Angeles will counter with a bullpen game. It will be all-hands-on-deck for the Dodgers as they look to keep their season alive and send the series back to Atlanta.
Our analysts are riding with the red-hot Braves tonight, with a couple moneyline picks and a pitcher prop.
Here are our best bets for Thursday night's NLCS Game 5 in Los Angeles.
Braves vs. Dodgers Picks
Braves +125
Anthony Dabbundo: Braves lefty Max Fried has been one of the league’s best pitchers in the last two months. Dating back to the end of July, Fried has posted 14 consecutive quality starts of at least six innings pitched and three or fewer runs allowed. His 3.04 ERA, 3.31 FIP and 3.49 xERA are all among the upper-echelon of pitchers in the National League.
Los Angeles is just 17th in on-base percentage against lefties this season and is now missing two key sources of power after Justin Turner joined Max Muncy on the injured list. Despite Cody Bellinger’s recent playoff success, he has just a .383 OPS against lefties this year and the Dodgers barely touched Fried in any of the three times they faced him this season.
Fried’s curveball — his main secondary pitch — is an excellent matchup for a Dodgers lineup that has mediocre numbers against curveballs this season. Fried gives out very few free passes and the Dodgers' lineup hasn’t produced enough without the help of walks in this series.
The Dodgers counter Fried with another bullpen game, but it’s getting thin out there for the dodgers. Phil Bickford and Justin Bruihl worked back to back days and long man Tony Gonsolin is likely unavailable. It only takes one pitcher to not have his best stuff and cough up some runs.
Atlanta continues to be undervalued in Game 5 and at +125, it's got a good chance to close out the series on Thursday.
Braves +125
Kenny Ducey: Similar to Game 3 and Game 4, the series script would seem to point to the Dodgers winning here. They can’t possibly go down at home without a fight, right?
Well, they sure can. Atlanta’s offense continues to rake — and has proven itself against just about every pitcher the Dodgers have. L.A. will have an all-hands-on-deck situation developing in Game 5 as it tries to stave off elimination, potentially adding David Price to the roster to pitch here.
I’d tilt this game even further toward the Braves in that case, given Price hasn’t pitched since October 2 and was struggling prior to that point. At 36, his strikeout rate has cratered and he’s allowed some bad home runs to lackluster offenses in the past few months.
Max Fried, meanwhile, has a couple of advantages here. He’s left-handed, and we know the Dodgers prefer to hit righties. They’re also without Justin Turner, who is one of their biggest weapons against southpaws. Fried also leans on a curveball, and Los Angeles ranked 21st against hooks during the regular season.
Fried has pitched to a 1.50 ERA in two postseason starts, and although he did allow eight hits and a homer to the Dodgers earlier in this series, that would hardly be too much for this red-hot offense to overcome. When you mix in the fact that he has yet to walk a hitter in 12 postseason innings, the road for L.A. to have a big night at the plate gets even tougher.
Max Fried Over 4.5 Strikeout (-105)
Tanner McGrath: Max Fried has been a stud in Atlanta’s last two playoff runs. He’s made six starts for the Braves during that stretch, and he’s posted a 2.52 ERA while pitching almost six innings per start. The Braves are also 5-1 in those games.
More importantly, however, is that he’s struck out five or more batters in five of those six starts. That includes the three starts he’s had against the Dodgers during that stretch, wherein he’s posted stat lines of:
2020 NLCS GM1: 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 9 K
2020 NLCS GM6: 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 4 BB, 5 K
2021 NLCS GM1: 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 5 K
Fried was a little off to begin this season, but he cranked it up in the second half. He steadily dropped his ERA throughout the year, and he’s cashed over 4.5 strikeouts in 18 of his last 20 starts.
Today, FanGraphs SaberSim projections have Fried notching 5.09 strikeouts, while the Action Labs Player Props tool has him striking out 5.9. Either way, there’s plenty of value on the over 4.5 number BetMGM is offering.
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