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Braves vs. Nationals MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Atlanta’s Offense Has an Edge Against Patrick Corbin (Friday, July 15)

Braves vs. Nationals MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Atlanta’s Offense Has an Edge Against Patrick Corbin (Friday, July 15) article feature image
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Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Matt Olson

  • The Braves are strong road favorites in tonight's matchup with the Nationals.
  • Atlanta sends Ian Anderson to the mound, while Washington will counter with Patrick Corbin.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

Braves vs. Nationals Odds

Braves Odds -165
Nationals Odds +135
Over/Under 9.5
Time 7:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Braves are two and a half games behind the Mets in the National League Eastern division, but occupy the top wild card spot in the National League with a 53-37 record entering play Friday.

On the other hand, this season has already gone off the rails for the Nationals. Washington is tied for the worst record in all of baseball at 30-61 and also has the worst run differential in all of baseball at negative-146.

The Braves have had little trouble with the Nationals in their head-to-head matchups this year as Atlanta is 8-2 against Washington, which is their best record against any opponent this year.

The Braves deserve to be favorites, but who will ultimately get the job done Friday in this interdivisional matchup?

Atlanta’s Offense Should Thrive

The Braves have a strong offense led by superstar outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. Atlanta is 10th in all of baseball averaging 4.60 runs per game on the road and, with 142 home runs, they lead the National League in home runs by 20 home runs entering play Friday.

Atlanta has proven to be a difficult matchup for Nationals starter Patrick Corbin already this season as he’s 0-2 against the Braves. Back in April, Corbin allowed six earned runs without making it out of the third inning against the Braves.

He fared better in his last start against Atlanta, allowing four earned runs, but completing six innings.

While Corbin has a 5.70 ERA this season, his xFIP is considerably lower at 4.72. He had a 6.30 ERA in his first 10 starts and has pitched better since then, but still has a 5.04 ERA over his last eight starts.

Corbin has allowed a .186 ISO to right-handed batters and the Braves have five hitters in their projected lineup with at least a .200 ISO against left-handed pitching this year in Acuna, Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley, William Contreras and Adam Duvall.

Look for Atlanta’s offense to have the upper hand on Corbin once again.

Can Nationals Hit Anderson?

Braves starter Ian Anderson has the ERA he deserves so far this year as he has a 4.98 ERA and a 4.99 xFIP.

Like Corbin, Anderson has also faced his opponent here twice already this season. Anderson didn’t factor into the decision in either game against Washington, but his two starts were a bit of a mixed bag. In June, he allowed four earned runs in four innings against Washington and in his last start he allowed only two earned runs in 5 1/3 innings while striking out five.

Anderson has reverse splits when it comes to power prevention as he’s allowed a .191 ISO to right-handed hitters, but the Nationals don’t have any right-handed hitters with at least a .200 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Juan Soto, a left-handed hitter, has a .293 ISO against right-handed pitching this year, but Anderson has allowed just a .089 ISO to left-handed hitters this season. Anderson didn’t allow a home run in either of his starts against Washington this season.

The Nationals are 26th in all of baseball averaging 3.67 runs per game at home this season.

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Braves-Nationals Pick

While this line is pretty close to being efficient, I couldn’t find a compelling reason to believe the Nationals are live underdogs here.

Corbin hasn’t been as bad as his ERA, but he hasn’t been good and Atlanta clearly has the better lineup. The Braves are 8-2 against Washington after all.

I’m taking the juice on Braves moneyline at -165 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Pick: Braves ML (-165)

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