MLB Odds & Picks for Brewers vs. Cubs: Conditions Give Chicago Value on Tuesday
Matt Dirksen/Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Steele and Willson Contreras.
- The Brewers and Cubs will meet for the third game of their four-game series Tuesday.
- The Brewers are road favorites after winning both games in Monday's doubleheader.
- Charlie DiSturco breaks down where to find betting value tonight.
Brewers vs. Cubs Odds
|Time||8:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds via WynnBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Milwaukee Brewers look to keep the ball rolling against their NL Central foe Chicago Cubs after sweeping the doubleheader on Monday night.
Milwaukee took home the first leg on the back of Luis Urias’ 3-run home run in the seventh before Aaron Ashby turned in yet another strong performance in Game 2.
The Cubs look to bounce back behind 26-year-old Justin Steele while the Brewers match with a southpaw of their own in Eric Lauer.
Will offense be at a premium against these left-handers on Tuesday night, or will the ball be flying out of the park with 13 mile per hour winds blowing out of Wrigley Field?
Will Eric Lauer Find Regression?
Lauer has taken a big step forward in an already stacked Milwaukee pitching staff in 2022, as the left-hander has a 2.31 ERA.
His fastball has jumped a mile per hour, and he’s throwing his slider — his best pitch — nearly double the amount from last season. Lauer’s also been able to cut his walk rate down, too.
But if you dig a little deeper, Lauer’s underlying metrics suggest room for negative regression. His xERA of 3.65 is over a run higher than his actual ERA, and his FIP (3.56) is not too far behind.
He’s leaving nearly 90% of runners on base — 15% higher than his career average — and is giving up more home runs. Opponents have barreled the southpaw more in 2022, as he ranks in the bottom 30% in Hard-Hit Rate.
That is a cause for concern on Tuesday night where he’ll be pitching in double-digit winds blowing out of the park. Especially when Lauer is not a ground-ball pitcher, just 32.5% of batted balls, compared to a 47.4% Fly-Ball Rate.
It’s also important to note that Josh Hader got the save in both legs of the doubleheader on Monday. The best reliever in baseball — 18 saves, 0.00 ERA — will likely be unavailable.
Justin Steele Has Upside for the Cubs
Take a look at Steele and his numbers aren’t pretty. He has a 5.40 ERA and enters Tuesday night fresh off a two inning, seven-run bludgeoning by the Cincinnati Reds.
But his struggles have more been a byproduct of misfortune than talent. Yes, Steele’s double-digit walk rate is concerning. But aside from his inconsistent control, his advanced metrics suggest major positive regression.
For starters, his xERA (3.45) is nearly two runs lower than his actual ERA, and his FIP is even lower at 3.22. He’s in the top four percent of MLB in barrel rate, limiting hard contact often.
That’s important for tonight’s matchup with Milwaukee in a windy environment. Steele generates ground balls 44.6% of the time and has allowed just 0.51 HR/9 this season.
Despite his success limiting hard contact and keeping the ball in play, opponents have an unsustainable .351 BABIP against the lefty. Steele has stranded just 60% of runners on base and should regress toward his career average of 71.8.
All of this to say that if you look at the 26-year-old from an outsider’s perspective, his numbers do not look pretty. But Steele has actually been way more impressive than they indicate.
If it weren’t for the wind blowing out at 13 miles per hour, I would be all over this under here. Both pitchers sit at the mid-3s in xERA and draw favorable matchups on Tuesday night.
But, because of the wind, I think there’s value on the home Cubs. While Lauer has been great in 2022, both his barrel and ground ball rates are worrisome in this matchup.
Meanwhile, Steele has been able to limit hard contact and keep the ball on the. ground. If he continues to pitch like he has, his fortune will turn for the good in the near future. And I think Tuesday presents a solid opportunity for that.
Tack on the fact that Milwaukee’s offense struggles significantly more against southpaws — a .210/.289/.358 slash vs. a .244/.319/.431 against righties — and I think the Cubs hold value here at plus money.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline +116 (Bet to +100)
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