The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Cincinnati Reds on August 27, 2025. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SportsNet LA.
The Dodgers are heavily favored to complete the sweep over the Reds on Wednesday at Dodger Stadium, where they are 43-24 this season. Shohei Ohtani will look to get right after a tough start at Coors Field last Wednesday in a matchup versus Nick Lodolo, who will make his first start since August 4th.
Find my MLB betting preview and Reds vs Dodgers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Reds vs Dodgers Prediction
- Reds vs Dodgers pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-120, play to -130)
My Reds vs Dodgers best bet is on the first five innings under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Reds vs Dodgers Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -127 | 8 -120o / -102u | +160 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +104 | 8 -120o / -102u | -199 |
Reds vs Dodgers Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Nick Lodolo (CIN) | Stat | RHP Shohei Ohtani (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-6 | W-L | 0-1 |
| 2.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.1 |
| 3.05/3.59 | ERA /xERA | 4.61/2.59 |
| 3.73/3.69 | FIP / xFIP | 2.06/2.73 |
| 1.03 | WHIP | 1.28 |
| 19.0% | K-BB% | 25.9% |
| 41.8% | GB% | 36% |
| 103 | Stuff+ | 118 |
| 100 | Location+ | 99 |
Nick Martin’s Reds vs Dodgers Preview
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview: Offense Struggles to Find Spark
Though a 3.5-game gap does not sound all that insurmountable, FanGraphs projects the Reds have only a 5.1% chance of tracking down the New York Mets and earning the NL's final playoff spot, as they have a tough remaining schedule and a significantly worse power rating than the Mets.
A lot of things will need to break right for the Reds to sneak in, and Lodolo pitching at the elite level he had prior to his brief absence is certainly on the list. In his last six appearances, Lodolo has pitched to an ERA of 1.80 and allowed a batting average of .169. He also holds an excellent xFIP of 2.72 in those outings and a strikeout minus walk rate of 27.3%.
For a third consecutive season Lodolo holds a significantly lower ERA pitching on the road away from batter-friendly Great American Ballpark, as he holds an ERA of 2.18 in 70 and 1/3 innings of work on the road this season.
Cincinnati has scraped together just three runs throughout the first two games of this series and managed a total of only 10 hits. Given the team's recent offensive results, its lack of production in this series comes as no surprise, as since July 1st the Reds rank 28th with a wRC+ of 84. They also hold the second-worst expected slug rate in MLB this season.
The Reds rank 26th in wRC+ versus right-handed pitchers since the All-Star break and rank 25th in hard-hit rate during that span.
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Lineup Starting to Heat Up
While Ohtani's results as a pitcher this season have been a disappointment, a 4.61 ERA does appear to be underselling his work. He's pitched to an xERA of 2.59 and an xFIP of 2.73 but has stranded only 65.2% of baserunners (career strand rate of 78.9%). He holds a strikeout minus walk rate of 25.9%, and his pitch metrics are also excellent (118 Stuff+, 116 Pitching+).
On top of his strong strikeout minus walk rate, Ohtani has been hard-hit only 32.9% of the time and allowed an xSLG of .337; however, he has suffered from a .378 BABIP, compared to a career average of .277.
The Dodgers are trending in the right direction offensively after a disappointing six weeks of play, which has included relatively average results versus lefties. They rank 16th in wRC+ versus left-handed pitching since July 1st and have struck out at the fifth-highest rate in MLB during that span.
Mookie Betts’ recent form at the plate provides one major cause for optimism for the Dodgers offensively, as after a horrid start to the season, he's batted .324 with a .354 xBA since August 6th.
Reds vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Analysis
Lodolo could potentially exhibit some signs of rust after a three-week layoff; however, he was only sidelined with a blister and should be able to continue pitching at an elite level down the stretch. So while there's a little more volatility in betting his first game back and perhaps he will not go overly deep into this matchup, he does not seem to be getting enough credit for his recent dominance from oddsmakers.
Ohtani has struggled throughout his last two starts, but one was at Coors Field, and his pitch metrics and underlying numbers from those outings remained excellent. He's due for significantly better results as a pitcher, and this looks like a good spot to back him having a more effective outing at home versus a weak Reds lineup.
A total of 4.5 for the first five innings appears to be too high given the upside of both starters, and I'd bet the under down to -130.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 Runs (-120, DraftKings; play to -130)
Moneyline
There does not appear to be value in betting either side to win this matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
There does not appear to be value in betting either side to cover the run-line in this matchup.
Over/Under
Obviously my lean would be with the under in terms of the game total of 8.5, but I see more value in backing the first five innings to go under a total of 4.5.
Reds vs Dodgers Betting Trends
