The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Cincinnati Reds on August 8, 2025. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on Apple TV+.
The Reds will continue their series in Pittsburgh after the Pirates' ace, Paul Skenes, dominated them on Thursday. The Pirates enter as -120 favorites in Game 2.
Read our Reds vs Pirates prediction and MLB moneyline pick below.
My Reds vs Pirates Prediction
- Reds vs Pirates picks: Reds ML (-112, DraftKings)
My Reds vs Pirates best bet is on Cincinnati ML. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Reds vs Pirates Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +149 | 8 -110o / -110u | -112 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -183 | 8 -110o / -110u | -108 |
Reds vs Pirates Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Mitch Keller (PIT) | Stat | RHP Chase Burns (CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-10 | W-L | 0-3 |
| 2.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 3.89 / 4.01 | ERA / xERA | 6.04 / 3.62 |
| 3.70 / 4.16 | FIP / xFIP | 2.90 / 2.50 |
| 1.22 | WHIP | 1.48 |
| 3.1 | K-BB% | 3.9 |
| 43 | GB% | 35.3 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 112 |
| 100 | Location+ | 100 |
Sean Paul’s Reds vs Pirates Preview
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview: Burns Baby Burns
Every game matters infinitely more for the Reds than the majority of the rest of the National League.
The only real team with a shot to steal the third wild-card spot from the Mets is the Reds. So, they’ll need to play better than their 5-5 record over their past 10 games indicates.
A lot of that begins with Chase Burns, a rookie hurler whom the Reds fast-tracked to the bigs.
Sure, you can look at Burns’s 6.04 ERA and question my previous statement and say, "he looks the part?" But he does! He's simply unlucky. He’s striking out 14.93 per nine with a strong 3.61 xERA and 2.90 FIP.
Burns gets hit very hard, which isn’t unexpected for a hard-thrower. He ranks toward the bottom of the league with a 47% hard hit rate and a 90% average exit velocity.
Cincinnati hasn’t hit well since the All-Star Break, ranking 27th among MLB lineups with an 87 wRC+. The Reds' lack of power stands out, hitting just 14 homers in their last 18 games. They do have a strong approach by taking pitches, leading to an elite 9.3% walk rate.
Elly De La Cruz is the one who dictates whether the Reds remain a bottom-five offense in baseball or if they become a top-15 to 20 offense. That’s their ceiling, and De La Cruz has a 96 wRC+ in 80 plate appearances since the All-Star break. He’s drawing walks at an exceptional rate, but he needs to start producing like the star he is.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview: Sound the Alarm?
The Pirates have won six of their past ten games, but I’m a little more concerned about some of their recent results, as their deadline moves weakened their bullpen.
Pittsburgh will give Mitch Keller the ball on Friday. In his most recent outing, Keller was a victim of Coors Field, allowing five runs in less than six innings. He should post a better outing against the Reds in a more pitchers’ friendly park, but nothing about his stuff jumps off the page.
What Keller lacks in top-end velocity, he makes up for with carry on his four-seamer. That leads to his elite +14 fastball run value, which places him in the 96th percentile. However, his secondary offerings are lacking, ranking in the 37th percentile in breaking run value and 14th in offspeed run value.
Keller is a rock-solid arm, but nothing about him is eye-popping. He boasts a 3.89 ERA with a 4.01 xERA and 3.70 FIP. He probably won't have a crazy blowup outing, but won't throw six or seven scoreless, either. And as I touched on earlier, dealing with David Bednar was a huge blow. His departure pushed Dennis Santana to the closer role, and he's blown a pair of saves in the last week.
Offense hasn't been the DNA of this Pirates team all year. They have the 20th-best wRC+ since the All-Star break and deal with a lot of the same issues the Reds do. They just don't have enough power options in their lineup, which is why they have the fourth-fewest homers in that span.
The difference is that the Pirates lack a player who can carry the offense. O'Neil Cruz can't hit left-handers, and his strikeout problems cut into his overall production. Players like Spencer Horowitz, Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen need to continue hitting well for the Pirates to stay inside the top-20 in wRC+.
Reds vs Pirates Prediction, Betting Analysis
I'll look back at Burns here. He's not getting enough love price-wise in this spot.
Skenes outmatches the Reds. He's a perennial Cy Young candidate year after year.
But in a duel between two shaky offenses, I'll back the pitcher who should have regression on his side and can dominate in a way Keller can't.
Burns is still hunting down his first Major League victory, and is plenty rested after pitching just one inning last Saturday due to a rain-suspended game.
Pick: Reds ML (-112, DraftKings)
Moneyline
I like the Reds here.
Run Line (Spread)
No play.
Over/Under
No play.
