The Houston Astros host the Cleveland Guardians on June 20, 2026. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on FOX.
The Astros are favored by -144 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Guardians are +119 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Guardians vs Astros prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Guardians vs Astros Prediction
- Guardians vs Astros Pick: Joey Cantillo Over 14.5 Outs Recorded (-150, HardRock)
My Guardians vs Astros best bet is Joey Cantillo to go over his outs prop. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Astros Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -174 | 8.5 -105o / -114u | +119 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +143 | 8.5 -105o / -114u | -144 |
- Guardians vs Astros moneyline: Guardians +119, Astros -144
- Guardians vs Astros over/under: 8.5 (-105 / -114)
- Guardians vs Astros spread: Guardians +1.5 (-174), Astros -1.5 (+143)
Guardians vs Astros Polymarket MLB Odds
Guardians vs Astros Probable Pitchers
| LHP Joey Cantillo (CLE) | Stat | RHP Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | W-L | 7-2 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.2 |
| 4.38 / 4.40 | ERA / xERA | 2.57 / 4.54 |
| 4.76 / 4.54 | FIP / xFIP | 3.81 / 4.74 |
| 9.9% | K-BB% | 10.4% |
| 42.4% | GB% | 40.4% |
| .305 | BABIP | .256 |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 93 | Location+ | 92 |
Guardians vs Astros MLB Betting Preview
While it appears that regression has finally hit Guardians lefty Joey Cantillo, some underlying numbers suggest he's in line for more success than his 7.71 ERA over his last three starts shows.
Cantillo's biggest issue is his ability to get ahead of hitters. His first pitch strike rate is among the lowest in baseball at 52.9 percent, per Handigraphs. It's been even worse over his last three starts as he's getting ahead of less than half the hitters he faces at 49.3 percent.
Although what's interesting is that despite falling behind in counts more lately, Cantillo appears to be more a victim of bad luck, rather than bad results. In the same span, Cantillo's walk rate is minimal at 7.5 percent, and his hard-hit rate allowed is elite at 34 percent.
He's also still producing plenty of swings and misses as his CSW is at 28.8 percent, and his swing strike rate is above average as well.
Tonight, he faces a Houston lineup that has shown they can do damage against lefties, holding a 108 wRC+. However, the damage they've done against lefties is more a result of volume rather than the quality of contact.
The Astros don't whiff much against left-handers, but have the eighth-lowest hard-hit rate and the fifth-lowest BABIP. They are also 12th in chase rate.
They profile as a lineup likely to help Cantillo work much more efficiently tonight, swinging early in counts, generating weak contact, and ultimately allowing the Guardians starter to work deeper into this game.
Pick: Joey Cantillo Over 14.5 Outs Recorded (-150, HardRock)
