The New York Mets (63-49) and Cleveland Guardians (56-55) will meet in the MLB tonight. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on CLEG.
The Mets and Guardians begin a series in Queens on Monday. After both teams lost yesterday, they'll be looking to bounce back. New York enters as a -185 moneyline favorite, while Cleveland is +150 to pull of the upset.
Continue below for my MLB betting preview and Guardians vs Mets predictions for Monday, August 4, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Guardians vs Mets Prediction
- Guardians vs Mets pick: Mets -1.5 (+120 | Play to -105)
My Guardians vs Mets best bet is on New York to cover the run line, with the best line currently available at DraftKings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Mets Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +150 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +118 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -185 |
Guardians vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Slade Cecconi (CLE) | Stat | LHP Sean Manaea (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-4 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 3.77/4.99 | ERA /xERA | 2.08/2.87 |
| 4.61/4.06 | FIP / xFIP | 2.93/2.90 |
| 1.22 | WHIP | 0.87 |
| 13.0% | K-BB% | 26.5% |
| 40.9% | GB% | 34.2% |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 103 | Location+ | 103 |
Sean Paul’s Guardians vs Mets Preview
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview: Regression Looms for Cecconi
It’s been a brutal year for the Guardians. Between lackluster performances from their offense, to one of their more reliable starters in Luis Ortiz, and their star closer in Emmanuel Clase being placed on leave, it’s been a total mess.
One of the few bright spots is Monday’s starter, Slade Cecconi, who came back in the Josh Naylor trade. Cecconi boasts a strong 3.77 ERA, but his 4.99 xERA and 4.61 FIP suggest significant regression is on the way.
I feel confident that Cecconi’s regression is coming soon due to his poor hard-hit metrics. He ranks in the 17th percentile in xBA, 8th in average exit velo, barrel rate, and hard hit rate. It’s only a matter of time until the hard hits result in home runs.
Home runs are the biggest issue in Cecconi's profile. He allows 1.53 HR/9 and he's primarily a fly-ball pitcher, which doesn't make me think the number will improve.
The Guardians' bats are hitting better than they have for most of the year. They rank seventh in MLB with a 111 wRC+ since July 10th. Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan are always consistent.
What’s changed is that Daniel Schneeman and Kyle Manzardo each posted a wRC+ above 140 in their last 16 games. Scheeman is even more blistering hot than Manzardo, as he's hitting over .400 in his past seven games.
However, since neither Schneeman nor Manzardo plays against southpaws, they won't be a factor until the bullpen comes in.
New York Mets Betting Preview: Manaea's Return Boosts Rotation Stability
The Mets needed a pitcher other than David Peterson and Kodai Senga, which is what Sean Manaea has been since returning from a lengthy IL stint.
In just four outings, Manaea offers an impressive 2.08 ERA with a 2.87 xERA and 2.93 FIP.
It's a small 17 1/3 inning sample, but Manaea has pitched like one of MLB's top arms since he started dropping his arm slot down mid-way through last season. He's punched out 5+ batters in three of his outings and allowed three or fewer hits in three straight outings.
The one thing Manaea hasn't provided is length, which is nothing new to Mets fans. Peterson is the only pitcher on the staff who seems to value the quality start.
But with the Mets' vastly improved bullpen, Manaea just needs to pitch five strong innings before handing the ball to Reed Garrett, Tyler Rogers, Ryan Helsley, and Edwin Diaz to lock it down.
I'm sure the Mets' offensive big three of Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Juan Soto would like to forget about July. The Mets' offense ranks just 28th in MLB since July 10th, largely a result of Lindor hitting .207, Soto hitting .141, and Alonso hitting .119.
The good news: none of those numbers will last. Lindor is the most concerning of the group since he's been off since he hurt his toe two months ago. But even he homered on Sunday. Alonso is a streaky hitter by nature, while Soto is always a threat due to his plate patience.
In this matchup, the Mets' offense feels ready to erupt against a pitcher who's eyeing down regression. If the Mets hit the ball hard, they'll capitalize on Cecconi's looming regression.
Guardians vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
What's the rationale behind snagging the Mets at -1.5 at plus money?
For one, the Guardians benefitted from a very weak schedule of late, pouncing on a terrible Rockies team and a Twins team who dealt 11 players from their big league roster.
So, I'm not buying into them. Winning back to back series is a result of them playing weak teams, not their talent level.
It's only a matter of time until this very talented Mets offense starts hitting, and I love the way Manaea has tossed the ball since returning. He's facing the weaker version of the Guardians lineup, which favors him and the Mets greatly.
This smells like a convincing win for the Mets and I'll take plus money on them winning by multiple runs.
Pick: Mets -1.5 (+120)
Moneyline
No play
Run Line (Spread)
I like the Mets at plus money
Over/Under
No play
Guardians vs Mets Betting Trends
