The New York Yankees (36-22) host the Cleveland Guardians (32-26) on Tuesday, June 3, 2025. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on TBS.
The Yankees and Guardians met in the ALCS last year, and the Bronx Bombers prevailed. Can the Guardians exact some revenge, or will this series follow suit? The Yankees enter this game as -205 moneyline favorites.
Read my Guardians vs Yankees prediction for this ALCS rematch below.
Guardians vs Yankees Prediction, Pick
- Guardians vs Yankees Pick: Under 8 (-105, BetMGM)
My Guardians vs Yankees best bet is on the Under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Yankees Odds, Lines
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -125 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +170 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -205 |
Guardians vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| Carlos Rodon (NYY) | Stat | Tanner Bibee (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-3 | W-L | 4-5 |
| 1.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 2.60 / 2.84 | ERA / xERA | 3.86 / 3.94 |
| 3.11 / 3.06 | FIP / xFIP | 5.06 / 4.37 |
| 0.94 | WHIP | 1.27 |
| 3.5 | K-BB% | 2.4 |
| 42.4 | GB% | 41.5 |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 98 | Location+ | 97 |
Guardians vs Yankees Preview, Prediction
Yankees Betting Preview: Resurgent Rodon
The resurgent season from southpaw Carlos Rodon is in full bloom. The 32-year-old continues to establish himself as one of the American League’s top hurlers.
It’s not a fluke, either. Rodon enters Tuesday with a 2.60 ERA, 2.84 xERA and 3.11 FIP. He’s changed his career arc by introducing a five-pitch mix instead of a fastball-slider approach that often got destroyed in his first two seasons in New York. He doesn't leave much to chance, as he's found his strikeout stuff, posting an 11.04 K/9 while ranking in the 90th percentile or better among qualified pitchers in whiff rate and strikeout rate.
Backing up Rodon is one of the top bullpens in baseball. Even with Luke Weaver hitting the injured list, Devin Williams, Mark Leiter Jr, and Jonathan Loaisiga are more than enough to compensate.
The Yankees' offense is consistently one of the top in baseball. They rank eighth among MLB lineups in wRC+ since May 20th, which is worse than most stretches you’ll find from them. Even when New York isn’t hitting tons of homers, its ability to draw walks at a 10% clip will help fill the bases.
The Guardians use analytics to their advantage, so I'd guess they stay safe facing Aaron Judge. That'll put the pressure on Cody Bellinger and others to crack this strong Cleveland pitching staff.
Guardians Betting Preview: Bibee Overperforming?
Cleveland needs Tanner Bibee to evade his poor analytics to lift its rotation. The Guardians' ace enters this outing with a 3.86 ERA, but his FIP sits at 5.06. Bibee's poor FIP is a byproduct of having just a 7.14 K/9, a 3.00 BB/9, and a career-worst 1.71 HR/9.
I'm willing to disregard the homers a bit, as Bibee allowed three homers in 30 innings over five starts in May. Seven of his 12 homers surrendered happened against the Orioles and Angels. I'd be more worried if he regularly gave up multiple homers in a game.
The Guardians haven't hit left-handed pitching well all season. They rank 22nd among MLB lineups in wRC+ against southpaws with nine home runs and a 25% strikeout rate. Cleveland's offense is heavily reliant on Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana, Kyle Manzardo, and Steven Kwan, as the rest of the lineup is inconsistent.
If Rodon can carve through the Guardians' lineup with his superb strikeout stuff, it'll be a long night.
Moreover, Cleveland has struggled to find any offense lately, posting a 99 wRC+ since May 20th. It ranks 19th with a .139 isolated power and 22nd with nine home runs. Fittingly, Ramirez, Santana, and Kwan account for five of the nine homers.
I mentioned the Yankees' dominant back end of the bullpen, but the Guardians might have the best.
Despite a few early hiccups, Hunter Gaddis, Cade Smith and Emmanuel Clase are the most dominant 7-8-9 in baseball. Clase has allowed just two runs over his past 14 2/3 innings, while Gaddis has allowed just three in his past 14 innings.
It hasn't been as easy for Smith, allowing six runs in 13 innings, but he's pitched to a 2.70 ERA in his past seven games.
Guardians vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis
I'm all for taking the Under.
This series bears a resemblance to the Yankees-Rangers series from a couple of weeks ago. The Yankees faced a tough pitching staff, but scored just enough to grind out a few wins after their elite pitching staff contained a terrible Texas lineup (5-2, 4-3, 1-0).
It's the same thing here. Cleveland has a better lineup than Texas, but it's far from a top-tier lineup.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-105, BetMGM)
