Cubs vs Mets Prediction & Picks Today | MLB Odds on Monday, August 7
Ed Zurga/Getty Images. Pictured: Kodai Senga
Cubs vs. Mets Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+102 | 9 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +168 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -120 | 9 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -205 |
The Chicago Cubs are once again on a roll, coming into this week the winners of five of six. They're seeking a seventh straight series victory after taking two of three from the mighty Braves and will run into a New York Mets team looking forward to 2024 after selling at the deadline.
Can Kodai Senga rebound after a brutal outing last week in Kansas City, or will Chicago stay hot? Let's dig into it in our Cubs vs. Mets preview and prediction.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs' offense simply cannot be contained right now. Over the last two weeks, they sit only behind the Braves in wRC+ and have hit an incredible .292 with just a .323 BABIP.
This team has reached via the walk in 9.3% of plate appearances while striking out just 20.1% of the time, and they've managed to steal 20 bases, which is second in baseball.
The bottom line is that Chicago is making a lot of contact, getting a lot of runners on base and when runners are on this team is extracting every last run from them.
Speaking of extracting every last bit or something, I'm pretty skeptical of what's left of Drew Smyly. He posted a 6.65 ERA in 21 1/3 innings last month and started off his August by allowing five earned over 4 2/3 innings against the Reds last week.
Chicago has been winning in spite of him lately, which is a change of pace after he started off the season on such a high note.
Smyly's expected batting average on the year now stands at a mediocre .250 and his ground ball rate at a low 35%. That's not going to cut it with a 21.3% strikeout rate.
New York Mets
The Mets may stand 18th in wRC+ over the last two weeks, but they're slowly beginning to play Mets baseball again.
A team which struggled in the heart of the season by selling out for power and flying out more than they're used to has now kept the ball on the ground 42.9% of the time over those 14 days.
While the results haven't quite been there, it's encouraging to see a lot of ground balls and a low 20.8% strikeout rate for a team built around contact hitting.
New York also seems to have found something here with Senga. He did allow three earned runs on 11 hits last time out against the Royals, but he's had an excellent season to this point. He posted a 1.93 ERA in the month of July across 23 1/3 innings and has coupled that with some excellent quality-of-contact numbers.
Senga's .222 xBA and .341 xSLG grade out as very good numbers and his 28.7% strikeout rate is almost seven points above the league average. It's come at the expense of an 11.6% walk rate, but on the whole he's been a very effective pitcher.
Senga has also cut back on the walks after a tough May in June in that area.
Cubs vs. Mets Betting Pick
The Mets should match up pretty well here with Smyly considering the lefty loves to pitch to contact and has not done it all too well. Though it's too late at this point, New York is beginning to find its identity again on offense and should be rewarded for it with its new ace on the hill.
I think the Cubs may be World Series-bound, but they're not going to win every single one of their remaining games. This is a poor matchup, and this number is screaming Mets.
Pick: Mets ML (-120) |
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