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Our final regular-season Friday features 17 games, thanks to two doubleheaders: Cubs vs. Red Sox and Orioles vs. Yankees.
We have a pick for that first game at Fenway Park at 1:05 p.m. ET, and also for Rays vs. Phillies (6:40 p.m. ET), Mets vs. Nationals (6:45 p.m. ET), Reds vs. Blue Jays (7:07 p.m. ET), and Astros vs. Athletics (9:40 p.m. ET).
Read below for our 5 MLB Best Bets for Friday.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:05 PM | |
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 6:45 PM | |
  | 7:07 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Cubs vs Red Sox Bet Labs Featured System
By Bet Labs
Fenway Park is traditionally a hitter-friendly stadium, but when wind blows inward, it significantly suppresses offensive output, particularly fly balls that would otherwise clear the Green Monster or drop in for extra-base hits.
Those conditions are present this afternoon in Boston for Game 1 of Friday's doubleheader and have activated our "Wind Blowing In at Fenway, Bet Under" system to support a low-scoring contest today.
Clay Holmes gets the ball for the Cubs. On top of his solid season, he has a 60.1% ground-ball rate, which also bodes very well for this scenario.
Lefty Alec Gamboa starts for the Red Sox, and with a 1.16 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, he's done great in his first MLB season. However, Boston relievers will likely follow soon, as Gamboa hasn't gone past the second inning since August 14th.
That's also great news, as the Red Sox bullpen ranks first in the majors in ERA (3.05).
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Pick: Under 6.5 (-108)
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Charlie Wright's Rays vs Phillies Best Bet
This is another gross weather spot. Winds are blowing straight in and there's some rain in the forecast.
Cristopher Sanchez has had a few blips recently, mostly due to allowing a few more HRs than usual.
It's going to be tough to get one out at Citizens Bank Park tonight. Tampa Bay is 25th in OPS and 26th in wOBA vs. lefties since the start of August.
The Rays fixed Freddy Peralta. He's allowed 3 ERs in his last 5 starts.
It took a bit, but the pitch mix and location adjustments with Tampa Bay have led to tremendous results.
Peralta faces a Philly lineup that ranks dead last in wRC+ vs. righties over the past 30 days.
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Pick: F5 Under 3.5 (-125)
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Derek Carty's Mets vs Nationals Prop
By Derek Carty
CJ Abrams to hit a home run is the play for this game. I like it down to +550.
We don't have an official Mets pitcher confirmed yet, but it's looking like it's probably going to be Justin Hageman.
Regardless of who it is, though, it's going to represent a really good matchup for a home run.
We're getting great value on Abrams, who is simply a better hitter than that price implies.
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Pick: CJ Abrams Home Run (+610)
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PRO's Reds vs Blue Jays Largest Prop Edge
Action PRO projects Nick Lodolo for 3.45 strikeouts today against the Blue Jays, giving us a solid 15.9% edge when compared to his current prop line of over/under 4.5, which is good enough to tag the under with an A- grade in our system.
It's his final start of the season, and he's coming off a game against the Cubs in which he struck out just one batter in seven complete frames.
The Reds starter has only 16 Ks this month in 24 2/3 innings and will face a Toronto lineup with the second-lowest strikeout rate in MLB at 19.0%.
Lodolo has been under this line in six of his past 10 starts, never reaching more than six Ks in that span.
Let's fade him tonight against Toronto.
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Pick: Nick Lodolo Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155)
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O/U Projection for Astros vs Athletics
Our own Sean Zerillo projects an edge on the total for this Astros vs. Athletics matchup.
While the consensus line sits at 9, Zerillo projects around 9.84 runs for this game, representing a 4.1% edge against the market, making the over the best choice with a B- grade on our system.
Also, the number of bets and percentage of money show increasing support for this option heading into today's first pitch.
As a reminder, you can see all of Zerillo's MLB game projections with an Action PRO Subscription. Find his projected lines every day on the PRO Projections tab.
Pick: Over 9 (-109)
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