Tuesday MLB Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions for Cubs vs. Orioles: Back Keegan Thompson, Chicago on Road
Photo by Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images. Pictured: Keegan Thompson (Cubs)
- The Cubs face off against the Orioles in the first outing of a two-game set.
- Keegan Thompson will take the mound for Chicago while Baltimore will throw Kyle Bradish.
- D.J. James breaks down the matchup and offers up his best bet.
Cubs vs. Orioles Odds
|Over/Under||9 (-110 / -110)|
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Keegan Thompson has been electric for the Chicago Cubs this season. He’s been one of the best relievers in baseball and has filled into the rotation well. He will throw for the Cubs on the road Tuesday in Baltimore against Kyle Bradish and the Orioles.
Bradish, on the other hand, has struggled consistently this season. He owns a 5.57 xERA and permits plenty of hard contact.
In the last month, Baltimore’s bullpen has been relatively lucky. So, given the comparison between the two starting pitchers and how the Cubs’ bullpen has been solid, Chicago should get the edge here.
Cubs’ Pitching Staff to Take Over?
Thompson has a 1.99 ERA on the season. His xERA is definitely higher at 3.21, but considering how valuable he has been for David Ross in the long relief/sixth-starter role, he’s a major plus.
He has shown maturity in not allowing hard hit balls. His Average Exit Velocity is 86.5 mph, down from 90.1 mph last season.
He has also lowered his walk rate from 12.8% to 7.9%, which is a touch better than league average.
His Hard Hit Percentage ranks in the 87th percentile of baseball, which is fantastic.
He’s going up against a Baltimore lineup that has had trouble with right-handed pitchers. In the last month, the Orioles have an 88 wRC+ mark, which is well below average. The reason is only three hitters (Trey Mancini, Ryan Mountcastle and Austin Hays) are above a .340 xwOBA on the season off of righties.
Ramón Urías, Anthony Santander and Cedric Mullins come in above .320, but the bottom of the lineup has a significant drop-off below .295. Look for Thompson to take full advantage.
Now, the Cubs’ bullpen has not been getting the results they had earlier in the season. They own a 4.54 ERA, but they have a 3.46 xFIP, which is an MLB-best in the past month. The Cubs have seven arms in the pen below the 4.00 xFIP point, so they are serviceable and should be able to back up Thompson.
Daniel Norris, Brandon Hughes and Sean Newcomb are the southpaws of the bunch. Since Baltimore has only been about league average (100 wRC+) when facing lefties, the Cubs should be in a strong spot when Thompson leaves the game.
Could This Get Ugly For Orioles’ Bradish?
Bradish has been a bit unlucky — with his 6.82 ERA against his 5.57 xERA — but his peripherals are egregious. He ranks in the third percentile in Exit Velocity, the 15th percentile in Hard Hit Percentage and the 12th percentile in Barrel Percentage.
The Cubs have been above average in the past month off of righties, so this does not bode well for Bradish. They do have a tendency to force opponents to throw strikes (9.4% in that timeframe), too, so Bradish needs to hit the zone.
Yan Gomes and Seiya Suzuki are on the injured list for the Cubbies, so they will be short a couple of players.
Either way, they still have a favorable lineup in comparison to Baltimore. In the last month, they have six hitters at or over the .340 mark against right-handers.
This is an edge of about three hitters over the Orioles, so Bradish will struggle with the top of the order.
Baltimore has had the opposite luck of the Cubs’ bullpen. The O’s have a 2.69 ERA against a 4.20 xFIP, and they should come back to earth a bit in this game.
The Cubs are the better hitting team off of right-handers lately, and that — combined with Thompson and a solid bullpen — should lead them to a victory over Baltimore.
Bradish is still not strong in contrast to Thompson, so if the Cubs can hold onto their lead and stack runs on an overachieving bullpen, it’s an added bonus.
Pick: Chicago Cubs -110 | play to -130
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