The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Cincinnati Reds on June 27, 2026. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
The Reds are favored by -118 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Pirates are -101 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Reds vs Pirates prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Reds vs Pirates Prediction
- Reds vs Pirates Pick: Pirates +100, 0.5u (Bet to -110)
My Reds vs Pirates best bet is the Pittsburgh moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Reds vs Pirates Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -170 | 8 -105o / -115u | -118 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +140 | 8 -105o / -115u | -101 |
- Reds vs Pirates moneyline: Reds -118, Pirates -101
- Reds vs Pirates over/under: 8 (-105o / -115u)
- Reds vs Pirates spread: Reds -1.5 (+140), Pirates +1.5 (-170)
Reds vs Pirates Probable Pitchers
| RHP Chase Burns (CIN) | Stat | RHP Jared Jones (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-1 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 2.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 2.00/2.92 | ERA / xERA | 5.75/4.84 |
| 3.26/3.29 | FIP / xFIP | 4.78/3.99 |
| 21.5% | K-BB% | 14.4% |
| 38.3% | GB% | 45.9% |
| .256 | BABIP | .333 |
| 113 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 101 | Location+ | 105 |
Reds vs Pirates MLB Betting Preview, Pick
Chase Burns is having the breakout a lot of people expected in 2026. It’s not 2.00 ERA good because he won’t sustain a 93.4 LOB%, but his estimators form a tight range between 2.92 (xERA) and 3.32 (SIERA). We can certainly believe he’s that good.
Neither has Jared Jones been as bad as his 5.75 ERA in five starts back from Tommy John surgery. His .330 BABIP should reduce, though his range is still quite a bit higher and wider (3.82 deRA – 4.84 xERA).
There are some problems in the contact profile, though it’s not disastrous and he could be better going forward, but for now, I have a full run separating the two.
These teams also have very comparable below average defenses, or at least the teams they’re projected to field on Saturday do by FRV (Fielding Run Value).
However, everything else leans Pittsburgh’s way from baserunning (7 BRR gap between projected lineups) and bullpen (0.4 run gap between L30 day estimator average – FIP, xFIP, SIERA, BARTOLO’s gap is two teams and 0.13 runs depending on available relievers after Friday) to the largest Pirate edge of them all, offense.
When the Pirates finally spent a little bit of money this offseason to make some moderate upgrades, I don’t think anyone was expecting a 118 wRC+ at home and 114 wRC+ against RHP by the end of June, while their projected lineup with O’Neil Cruz still out, but Konnor Griffen back averages a 119 wRC+ against RHP and 132 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
That’s a far cry from Cincinnati’s 92 wRC+ on the road and 87 wRC+ against RHP. Their projected lineup has a 101 wRC+ against RHP this year, but just an 87 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
I have the gap between the two teams over 25 points of wRC+ on Saturday.
If Jones can keep his team in the game against a bad offense, the Pirates will have the advantage once the bullpen enters the game and I think that’s worth more than a break even proposition.
Pick: Pirates +100, 0.5u (Bet to -110)
