Cubs vs. Rockies Odds, Pick & Preview: Total at Coors Field Is Too High (April 17)
Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: Austin Gomber.
- The Rockies are favored in the series finale on Sunday against the Cubs.
- Only at Coors Field will you get totals like 11 early in the season.
- Tony Sartori breaks down which side of the over/under he's on this afternoon.
Cubs vs. Rockies Odds
|Over/Under||11 (-110 / -110)|
|Time||3:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
We have the fourth and final game of this series between the Chicago Cubs and Colorado Rockies.
Each team has taken a game in this series between the first two, with the total failing to go over 11 in either of those games. Will we see Sunday’s contest go under that total, or will there be a lot of fireworks to end the series?
Cubs Hope Smyly Proves Reliable
Ahead of this matchup on Saturday night, the Cubs’ first seven game totals have not reached 12 runs. Left-hander Drew Smyly hopes that remains the case after Sunday.
Smyly was solid in his season debut, allowing three hits over five scoreless innings. While that outing was against the Pirates, Smyly’s metrics suggest he could still see that strong play continue, as he registered a .197 xwOBA, .202 xBA and .256 xSLG.
After Smyly, the Cubs bullpen should be reliable, entering Saturday’s matchup ranked eighth in the league in ERA and 13th in on-base percentage.
On the other hand, Chicago’s offense may prove to be unreliable in this game as they are slated to go against left-hander Austin Gomber. Despite the small sample size, the Cubs have not had much success against Gomber. In 29 career plate appearances against the lefty, this Cubs team posts a mere .172 xBA, .429 xSLG and .312 xwOBA.
Over their previous five games entering Saturday night’s matchup, the Cubs were averaging just 3.6 runs scored per game. For this matchup specifically, there have been 11 or fewer total runs scored in seven of the last nine meetings between these two teams, prior to Saturday night’s game.
Gomber Thrives at Coors Field
Prior to Saturday night’s game, just one of the Rockies’ first seven games this season went over the total of 11.
As I mentioned above, Gomber is the projected starting pitcher for the Rockies in this contest. In his first outing this season against the Rangers, the southpaw allowed three runs on four hits over 4 2/3 innings.
While those numbers on the surface seem problematic, his metrics suggest that positive regression is looming. Gomber produced advanced numbers of .229 xwOBA, .171 xBA and .250 xSLG from that start.
Another reason to expect a stronger outing from Gomber is the fact that he returns home following his road start against the Rangers. Gomber was a completely different pitcher at Coors Field last season, posting a 2.09 ERA and 0.95 WHIP there.
Similar to Chicago, the Rockies bullpen entered Saturday as a reliable unit so far this season. Colorado’s relief corps began Saturday ranked first in the league in ERA, fourth in batting average, third in on-base percentage and second in slugging perfectage.
Going against Smyly, I don’t expect Colorado’s pitching to get a whole lot of run support. In 40 career plate appearances against Smyly, this current Rockies roster has a .218 xBA, .345 xSLG and .252 xwOBA against the lefty.
We are getting value in this total because the game is being played at Coors Field and the public loves to bet overs in Denver. However, the metrics in this contest suggest 11 is just too high of an adjustment.
Additionally, the weather should not be a factor, as the forecast calls for mild wind going from left to right across the field.
Pick: Under 11 (-115, play to -125)
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