The Cleveland Guardians host the Detroit Tigers on September 23, 2025. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on CLEG.
Find my MLB betting preview and Tigers vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Tigers vs Guardians Prediction
- Tigers vs Guardians picks: Tigers -1.5 (+120, bet365)
My Tigers vs Guardians best bet is on the Tigers spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Tigers vs Guardians Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 6.5 -110o / -110u | -160 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 6.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
Tigers vs Guardians Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Tarik Skubal (DET) | Stat | RHP Gavin Williams (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 13-5 | W-L | 11-5 |
| 6.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.3 |
| 2.23 / 2.77 | ERA /xERA | 3.06 / 4.35 |
| 2.47 / 2.67 | FIP / xFIP | 4.48 / 4.18 |
| 0.88 | WHIP | 1.28 |
| 28% | K-BB% | 11.8% |
| 40.4% | GB% | 46% |
| 116 | Stuff+ | 103 |
| 106 | Location+ | 95 |
Tony Sartori’s Tigers vs Guardians Preview
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview: Happy Skubal Day!
Tarik Skubal is on his way to winning the American League Cy Young Award for the second consecutive year. Producing another brilliant campaign, Skubal is 13-5 with a 2.23 ERA and 0.88 WHIP through 30 starts.
His underlying metrics are equally dominant. Entering this matchup, the southpaw ranks in the 94th percentile or higher in expected ERA (xERA), average exit velocity, walk rate and hard-hit rate.
This success is likely to continue against Cleveland, a team Skubal has dominated over the past few years. He is 3-1 with a 1.65 ERA and 0.82 WHIP over the past nine meetings.
Skubal should also receive plenty of run support. This season, Detroit ranks in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview: Tough Times Ahead?
The clear hitting advantage in this matchup goes to the Tigers, who outrank the Guardians in each of those four key offensive categories.
Not only does Detroit hold the edge in hitting, but it also boasts a pitching advantage. Cleveland hands the ball to Gavin Williams, who has far outperformed his analytics.
Regression is looming, as Williams owns a 4.35 xERA. He also ranks in the bottom half of the league in average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
This expected regression is likely to materialize against this strong Tigers lineup. Furthermore, this current Detroit roster has a .403 expected slugging percentage (xSLG) through 84 combined plate appearances against Williams.
Tigers vs Guardians Prediction, Betting Analysis
On the other hand, this Guardians roster possesses a mere .187 expected batting average (xBA), .267 xSLG, and .220 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) through 145 combined plate appearances against Skubal.
With clear hitting and pitching advantages, the Tigers are the team to back in this contest.
The question is whether to take the moneyline or the run line. Considering that each of Detroit’s past 10 wins has come by at least a two-run margin, it’s worth taking a shot on the latter.
Pick: Tigers -1.5 (+120, bet365)
