The Detroit Tigers (64-46) and Philadelphia Phillies (61-47) will meet in the MLB tonight. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on NBCS-PH.
Philadelphia is a -150 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Detroit is +125 to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 7.5 total runs.
Continue below for my Tigers vs Phillies predictions and MLB picks for Friday, August 1, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Tigers vs Phillies Prediction, Picks
- Tigers vs Phillies pick: Jack Flaherty Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110)
My Phillies vs. Tigers best bet is on Jack Flaherty over 6.5 strikeouts, with the best line currently available at Fanatics. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Tigers vs Phillies Odds, Spread
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -164 | 7.5 -106o / -115u | +133 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +134 | 7.5 -106o / -115u | -163 |
Tigers vs Phillies Run Line: Tigers +1.5 (-164); Phillies -1.5 (+134)
Tigers vs Phillies Totals: 7.5 (O -106/ U -115)
Tigers vs Phillies Moneyline: Tigers +133; Phillies -163
Tigers vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Jack Flaherty (DET) | Stat | LHP Ranger Suarez (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-10 | W-L | 8-4 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.6 |
| 4.51 / 3.91 | ERA / xERA | 2.59 / 3.16 |
| 4.13 / 3.57 | FIP / xFIP | 2.97 / 3.57 |
| 1.28 | WHIP | 1.17 |
| 20.1 | K-BB% | 16.4 |
| 34.7 | GB% | 47.3 |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 101 | Location+ | 111 |
Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies MLB Preview
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview
For much of this season, the Tigers have been the best team in the American League. However, sandwiching the All-Star break, they hit a rough patch. They lost 12 of 13 games while ranking among the league's worst both at the plate and on the mound during the stretch.
Jack Flaherty helped the Tigers snap their skid with six scoreless innings and seven strikeouts against the Blue Jays.
The Tigers offense responded with 10 runs, including a seven-run eighth inning. They went on to sweep the Diamondbacks to close out the homestand.
The bullpen was a major area of concern for the Tigers during their skid. In particular, Tommy Kahnle had a 19.64 ERA in July after three stellar months to begin the year.
While the Tigers did not shop at the top of the market, they made some upgrades to the backend of their bullpen at the trade deadline, acquiring Kyle Finnegan from Washington, Paul Sewald from Cleveland and Rafael Montero from Atlanta.
They also added Charlie Morton from Baltimore to lengthen their rotation.
Now, Detroit brings a four-game win streak to Philadelphia for what could be a preview of the World Series.
If that is the case, the Tigers will get an early dose of what will likely be the Phillies' Games 1-3 starters with Ranger Suarez, Zack Wheeler, and Cristopher Sanchez pitching for the Phillies this weekend.
Suarez has been tough this season with a 2.59 ERA and 90 strikeouts in 93 and 2/3 innings. However, he has fared much better on the road as he has a 4.15 ERA at Citizens Bank Park this season.
Additionally, the Tigers have the highest batting average against left-handed pitching this season.
Spencer Torkelson is hitting .280 with eight doubles, nine home runs, 24 RBI and a 1.001 OPS against left-handers this season.
A pair of X-factors tonight could be Andy Ibanez and Jahmai Jones. Ibanez homered in Monday's victory and is 5-for-8 with three extra-base hits since being recalled from Toledo.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
The Phillies are returning home after splitting a six-game road trip against the Yankees and White Sox. That shouldn't be surprising considering they are .500 on the road this season.
However, they are also .500 since the All-Star break at 6-6. They enter this series a half game behind the Mets in the NL East.
President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski —who built two AL Pennant-winning teams in Detroit as well— has never been shy to make a deal.
This trade deadline, he was able to acquire arguably the best reliever on the market in Jhoan Duran for a pair of top 10 prospects in the organization, RHP Mick Abel and C Eduardo Tait.
Duran has 53 strikeouts in 49 and 1/3 innings, a 2.01 ERA, and 16 saves this season, securing one save in three scoreless appearances against the Tigers this season.
Duran may get a save opportunity with his new club if the Phillies offense shows up as usual at home.
At Citizens Bank Park, the Phillies are averaging 5.1 runs per game this season. Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper each have an OPS north of .975 at home this season.
Schwarber has seven of his 37 home runs since the All-Star break, and he ranks in the top five in the MLB in home runs, RBI, and OPS this season.
Harper has been hot as well with a hit in 13 of his last 16 games. In July, he is slashing .291/.378/.628 with 11 doubles and six home runs.
Neither Schwarber nor Harper has enjoyed much success against Flaherty in their career. In fact, the Phillies are hitting .161 collectively against him.
Flaherty has been inconsistent this season, but when he is on, he has limited some potent lineups. He held the Blue Jays (twice), Dodgers, Yankees, Rays, and Cubs to two runs or fewer this season.
Tigers vs Phillies Betting Predictions
The Tigers and Phillies both used the trade deadline to upgrade their bullpens.
However, they also rank one and two in strikeout rate by starting pitchers this season.
Obviously, having Tarik Skubal and Wheeler helps with that, but Flaherty and Suarez are a factor as well.
In July, Flaherty had 37 strikeouts in 25 and 1/3 innings. He has fanned seven or more in five of his last six starts.
He is tied for 13th with 137 strikeouts this season, and his second career 200th strikeout season is in reach.
Flaherty has also generated 15 strikeouts in 56 at-bats against Phillies' hitters.
Pick: Jack Flaherty Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110, Fanatics)
Tigers vs Phillies Parlay Picks
- Jack Flaherty Over 6.5 Strikeouts
- Ranger Suarez 6+ Strikeouts
Parlay odds: +240 (Fanatics)
At plus-odds, Flaherty over strikeouts is playable as a straight bet, but I am also pairing him with Suarez for six.
Suarez has recorded six strikeouts in six of his last eight starts, and the Tigers are 14th in strikeout rate against lefties over the last month.
Tigers vs Phillies Betting Trends
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