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Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Diamondbacks Stay Hot? (April 28)

Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Diamondbacks Stay Hot? (April 28) article feature image
Credit:

Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Humberto Castellanos

  • The Diamondbacks have been playing well and will look to continue that success against the Cardinals.
  • St. Louis is looking to get back on track offensively, though it is coming off a win.
  • Kenny Ducey previews Thursday's MLB game and gives his best bet below.

Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals Odds

Diamondbacks Odds +155
Cardinals Odds -175
Over/Under 7.5 (-105 / -115)
Time 7:45 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

After doing the impossible and taking a series from the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Diamondbacks will look to continue their success against a Cardinals team that’s looking for answers at the plate, but which is coming off a big win over the Mets.

So, which team gives here? The answer may lie in the pitching matchup.

Diamondbacks’ Pitching Has Been Impressive

The Diamondbacks are showing some signs of life. I admittedly thought it’d come with Merrill Kelly on the hill and not Zach Davies, but however it happened they did manage to pull back the final two games of their three-game set with the Dodgers.

Arizona now sits just three games under .500 and could really start to feel good about things with a couple wins against a so-so Cardinals side.

In fact, it’s been five wins in eight games for Arizona. It’s been little thanks to the offense though, considering the Snakes are the owners of an 81 wRC+ since beginning that run on April 20.

That doesn’t mean they haven’t done some good things, though. They lead the way in contact rate in those eight games, getting a bat on the ball on 80.6% of swings and as a result struck out in just 21.9% of plate appearances.

The pitching has been the real story here. Arizona will be hoping Humberto Castellanos is the next man up to impress, and there is certainly reason to believe he might deliver. The third-year righty is the proud owner of a .266 xwOBA on contact and yet again has posted a hard-hit rate under the league average.

Castellanos has had issues with walks and hasn’t struck out too many hitters, but such is life with a junkballer. He will hope to continue inducing soft ground balls and pop-ups, which strangely have accounted for 17.1% of his batted balls.

Cardinals Need To Make More Contact

On the other side of this matchup is Dakota Hudson, a once-promising prospect who hasn’t yet been able to stay healthy for a full season. The sinker-baller is an extreme groundball guy, inducing them at a 54.1% rate this year and registering a decent 37.8% hard-hit rate.

He owns a 3.95 ERA to this point, which is just about what you’d expect out of a middling pitch-to-contact starter.

Hudson was victimized by a pair of home runs in his first start of the season and ran into trouble after just three innings against Milwaukee. He finally found some success against the Reds in his last outing with 6 2/3 scoreless innings, but he walked four batters.

The St. Louis offense finally woke up on Wednesday with 10 runs in a big win over the Mets, but in the three games prior it’d scored just three runs in three games.

The Cardinals continue to struggle with making good contact, reaching an exit veolcity of at least 95 mph on just 32.7% of batted balls. That ranks second-worst in the league.

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Diamondbacks-Cardinals Pick

There’s some real issues here with this Cardinals offense, which has not done a good enough job of driving the baseball. In today’s league, you will need home runs and hard-hit balls to truly thrive, and without them you are going to be stuck in the middle of the league.

That’s where St. Louis right now, and this surely doesn’t bode well for it against a junkballer like Castellanos who has been excellent at limiting the damage in the contact department. He’ll be licking his lips to face this lineup, which has done little when it’s put the bat on the ball.

Hudson probably won’t be the reason why the Cardinals lose, and this Diamondbacks offense — at least on paper — isn’t as good as St. Louis’.

With that being said, I do see some value here on Castellanos, who has been good, and this streaking offense.

Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+155)

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