Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Frank Ammirante has that job for Sunday, July 5.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Tigers/Rangers Under 7.5 (-105)
- Marlins ML (+102)
- Blue Jays ML (+112)
Detroit Tigers VS Texas Rangers Picks
I like Tigers/Rangers Under 7.5.
First and foremost, this game is in a pitcher-friendly environment in Globe Life Field. It's become one of the biggest pitchers' parks in MLB, so we want to take advantage by targeting the Under with the right pitching matchups. We're getting one today.
The Tigers are sending out Casey Mize, who has been terrific this season, putting up a 2.63 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 65 innings. This breakout is supported by the underlying metrics, including 2.82 xERA and 21.3 K-BB%.
Mize is coming off a dominant outing against the Yankees, where he tossed seven scoreless innings, allowing one hit with zero walks and 10 strikeouts.
The Rangers counter with Kumar Rocker. While the overall numbers aren't great, including a 3.83 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 80 innings, he's found a nice rhythm lately.
Rocker has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts, including six scoreless innings vs. the Blue Jays last turn.
The fact that we can get this Under at -105 at the time of this article puts a nice ribbon on what looks like a strong play for today.
Picks: Tigers/Rangers Under 7.5 (-105)
Miami Marlins VS Athletics Picks
Let's go with the Marlins ML over the Athletics.
The Marlins are now 48-42 on the season. They've gone 12-4 in their last 16 games, while winning the first two games of this series against the Athletics.
In the last 14 days, the Marlins have 130 wRC+, which ranks 3rd in MLB. Their bats have been scorching hot, putting them firmly into playoff contention.
Meanwhile, the Athletics are fading right now, falling to 41-48 after losing seven of their last 10 games. In the last 14 days, their bats have been relatively cold, ranking 22nd in wRC+. Despite this, they come into this matchup as favorites over the Marlins.
The main reason for this is promising rookie left-hander Gage Jump, who had been rolling up until his last outing, when he gave up five earned runs on 11 hits vs. the Dodgers. But the Marlins have a talented righty of their own on the mound in Eury Perez. Since returning from injury, Perez has allowed a combined two earned runs in 10 innings.
I'm betting that Perez can hold down the fort against Jump. Let's ride with the hotter team at plus money.
Picks: Marlins ML (+102)
Toronto Blue Jays VS Seattle Mariners Picks
We'll finish it off with the Blue Jays ML over the Mariners.
This is a bet on a pitching advantage at plus money. Toronto is going with Trey Yesavage, who has been in a nice rhythm lately, allowing a combined two earned runs in 12.1 innings in his last two starts.
Seattle counters with Emerson Hancock, who has had a breakout season for them, putting up a 3.47 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 90.2 innings.
But I'm starting to think that Hancock is crashing back to Earth. Since May 8th, the Mariners' righty has a 4.22 ERA (5.08 xERA), with a 1.12 WHIP in 49 innings.
Remember, his breakout came as a major surprise, so perhaps he's merely regressing. The Blue Jays lineup has been a major disappointment, but one thing they can do is put the ball in play and work up pitch counts.
With Yesavage on the mound against a fading Hancock, we'll ride with the Blue Jays as short road underdogs.
Picks: Blue Jays ML (+112)
Ammirante's MLB Picks and Predictions for Sunday, July 5
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Tigers/Rangers Under 7.5 (-105)
- Marlins ML (+102)
- Blue Jays ML (+112)
