The Seattle Mariners host the Toronto Blue Jays on July 5, 2026. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 5:00 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SNET.
The Mariners are favored by -164 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Blue Jays are +138 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Blue Jays vs Mariners prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction
- Blue Jays vs Mariners Pick: Trey Yesavage Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+114, FanDuel)
My Blue Jays vs Mariners best bet is a Yesavage prop. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Mariners Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -154 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | +138 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +128 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | -164 |
- Blue Jays vs Mariners moneyline: Blue Jays +138, Mariners -164
- Blue Jays vs Mariners over/under: 7.5 (-122o / -100u)
- Blue Jays vs Mariners spread: -1.5 (+128), Blue Jays +1.5 (-154)
Blue Jays vs Mariners Kalshi MLB Odds
Blue Jays vs Mariners Probable Pitchers
| Trey Yesavage | Stat | Emerson Hancock |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | W-L | 5-4 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.4 |
| 3.34 / 3.18 | ERA / xERA | 3.47 / 4.47 |
| 3.88 / 4.77 | FIP / xFIP | 3.77 / 3.74 |
| 11.3 | K-BB% | 18.1 |
| 33.3 | GB% | 41.5 |
| .217 | BABIP | .260 |
| 109 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 88 | Location+ | 106 |
Blue Jays vs Mariners MLB Betting Preview
Action PRO projects Blue Jays starter Trey Yesavage for 5.39 strikeouts in tonight's matchup against the Mariners, giving us a solid 8.1% edge against the market when compared to his current prop line of over/under 5.5 strikeouts, which is enough to tag the Under with a B- grade in our system.
Blue Jays vs Mariners Pick, Betting Analysis
While Seattle’s lineup is historically prone to the punchout, Yesavage's recent underlying metrics suggest this 5.5 line is set a tick too high. The 2024 first-round pick has accumulated 58 strikeouts on the year, but the league has officially adjusted to his pitch mix. Yesavage has stayed under 5.5 strikeouts in four of his last five starts—and five of his last six—relying more on weak contact than empty swings to get through orders.
The biggest culprit behind this downward trend is his decreasing whiff rate on put-away pitches. Opposing hitters are spoiling his high-fastball/splitter combination, lengthening their plate appearances and driving up his pitch count early. Because John Schneider and the Blue Jays coaching staff have been highly protective of the young righty's workload, longer at-bats directly translate to earlier exits. Even when Yesavage is pitching effectively and navigating through 5 or 6 innings, he simply isn't staying on the mound long enough to flirt with a 6-strikeout ceiling right now.
Lean into the projection edge and back the Under before the juice moves.
Pick: Trey Yesavage Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+114, FanDuel)
