The Athletics host the Miami Marlins on July 5, 2026. First pitch from Sutter Health Park is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on Peacock.
The Marlins are favored by +106 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Athletics are -124 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Marlins vs Athletics prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Marlins vs Athletics Prediction
- Marlins vs Athletics Pick: Over 9.5 (-108, FanDuel | Play to 10.5)
My Marlins vs Athletics best bet is 10+ total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Marlins vs Athletics Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 9.5 -108o / -112u | +106 |
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 9.5 -108o / -112u | -124 |
- Marlins vs Athletics moneyline: Marlins +106, Athletics -124
- Marlins vs Athletics over/under: 9.5 (-108o / -112u)
- Marlins vs Athletics spread: Marlins -1.5 (+162), Athletics +1.5 (-200)
Marlins vs Athletics Probable Pitchers
| Eury Perez | Stat | Gage Jump |
|---|---|---|
| 4-6 | W-L | 3-2 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.3 |
| 4.21 / 4.69 | ERA / xERA | 2.93 / 3.55 |
| 4.77 / 4.27 | FIP / xFIP | 2.66 / 3.64 |
| 16.2 | K-BB% | 18.8 |
| 35.7 | GB% | 38 |
| .253 | BABIP | .311 |
| 117 | Stuff+ | 109 |
| 92 | Location+ | 100 |
Marlins vs Athletics MLB Betting Preview
Miami Marlins Betting Preview
The Marlins hope fireballing right-hander Eury Perez can give them the necessary lift to beat the Athletics in this series finale.
Perez is an interesting case of someone who should be a lot better than he is. He has some of the best stuff in baseball but owns a 4.21 ERA with a 4.69 xERA and 4.78 FIP.
So why do the underlying metrics think so lowly of Perez? His control is an issue, as he's walking a career-high 3.69 batters per nine innings. Another issue for Perez is the long ball, as he's surrendering a career-worst 1.61 HR/9. Perez fully embraces the pitcher's vision of Joey Gallo's role as a three-true-outcomes player, striking out 10.03 batters per nine.
Miami has found a lot of success on the offensive end of late, boasting a 122 wRC+ over its last 18 games, ranking fifth best in the league. The Marlins rank in the top 12 in three key categories: walk rate (8.7%), strikeout rate (21%) and home runs (24).
Kyle Stowers, re-emerging as a star bat at the top of the Marlins' order, has given them a real boost. He leads the team with a 196 wRC+ and five homers over those 18 games. He balances out this lineup nicely because Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards serve as high-contact bats who get on base. Stowers can drive them in via the long ball to put up a crooked number.
Athletics Betting Preview
The Athletics' rotation severely lacked a true top-of-the-rotation option once Luis Severino got hurt. Enter Gage Jump, who has the makeup of an ace, boasting a 2.93 ERA with a 3.55 xERA and a 2.66 FIP in seven big league starts.
However, a few things go against Jump in this matchup. For one, pitching in the minor league park in Sacramento is a challenge for all pitchers. Secondly, Jump can throw a lot of pitches when he hunts for strikeouts. If this patient Marlins lineup can make Jump work, they can get into the A's bullpen quickly.
That's a promising idea for the road team, as the A's bullpen is one of the worst in MLB.
The Athletics' lineup is a top-10 unit in the sport this year, but it ranks just 19th in wRC+ over the past few weeks. The reason for the dip is All-Star catcher Shea Langeliers posting a 51 wRC+ during that span.
You have to feel good about the Athletics getting back on track, though. Nick Kurtz is as consistent as they come, Lawrence Butler is finally hitting, and Langeliers is just going through a minor slump.
Marlins vs Athletics Pick, Betting Analysis
When looking at this line, I'm a bit surprised the total has yet to reach double digits. I'm going with over 9.5 runs in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league, with two very strong offenses. Even if Jump dominates, the Athletics' bullpen will give up a few runs.
Meanwhile, the Athletics should be able to take advantage of Perez's home run woes on a sunny day in Sacramento.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-108, FanDuel | Play to 10.5)
