Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Odds, Preview, Prediction: Find Value on Friday Afternoon Total (July 23)
Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images. Pictured: Zach Davies.
- The Cubs open a series at Wrigley Field on Friday afternoon against the lowly Diamondbacks.
- Zach Davies will toe the rubber for the North Siders, while Arizona will feel confident with right-hander Zac Gallen set to start.
- Mike Ianniello breaks down the matchup below and where he sees betting value.
Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Odds
|Friday, 2:20 p.m. ET
|Odds as of Thursday and via BetMGM
Arizona and Chicago will play a three-game series for the second straight weekend beginning on Friday afternoon.
The Cubs took two of the three games last weekend in Arizona and will head back to Wrigley after four games in St. Louis, where they dropped three to the Cardinals.
The Diamondbacks have actually won four straight games after taking the last game against the Cubs and then sweeping the Pirates. Arizona had the benefit of an off-day on Thursday, but will the extra rest be enough to overcome its road woes this season?
Diamondbacks Showing Signs of Promise?
The Diamondbacks have the worst record in baseball at just 30-68 and have the worst differential at -145. They are 11-38 on the road this season and set an MLB record earlier this season with 24 consecutive losses away from home.
The lone All-Star for the Snakes was infielder Eduardo Escobar, who leads the team in hits, runs, RBIs and home runs (22). Arizona’s best player is Ketel Marte, who is batting .370 with a .974 OPS, but he has played just 37 games this year and is currently back on the injured list with a hamstring injury. Josh Rojas and Asdrúbal Cabrera are also currently hurt.
Arizona will have its ace in Zac Gallen on the mound Friday. The 25-year old has already been part of two blockbuster trades, getting sent from St. Louis to Miami in the Marcell Ozuna trade, and then Miami traded him to Arizona a year and a half later for Jazz Chisholm Jr.
It was a brilliant 2020 for Gallen, who posted a 2.75 ERA in 12 starts in his first “full” campaign with Arizona. This season, his numbers have ticked down a bit as he sits with a 3.86 ERA while battling injuries throughout the year, landing on the injured list three times already.
All of Gallen’s expected numbers are slightly better than his actual numbers. He has an xERA of 3.63 and opponents have an xwOBA of .294 compared to an actual wOBA of .305.
After two weeks on the injured list, Gallen returned last week and faced the Cubs on Saturday. He pitched into the sixth inning and allowed just one run and three hits while striking out seven batters.
Cubs Open Series Dealing With Rumors, Skid
It could be a rough July for Cubs fans.
World Series champs, franchise cornerstones and fan favorites Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez have all been subject to trade rumors and are expected to be shipped out of the Windy City in the coming weeks. Bryant was recently pulled from a game early due to injury, and Cubs fans already started saying goodbye on Twitter thinking he was traded.
Baez has certainly been boosting his trade value over the last couple weeks, during which he is batting .333 in July with a .910 OPS. Rizzo and Bryant have been ice cold, though.
Chicago’s offense as a whole has really struggled. Over the last month, it has scored the fewest runs in the league. The Cubs sit 29th in batting average and 29th in OPS over the last 30 days with a 27.1% strikeout rate, the highest in the league.
The Cubs will send Zach Davies to the hill Friday, and he is so hard to figure out. On one hand, his underlying metrics are horrible. He has a 6.04 xERA and a .369 xwOBA, both rank in the bottom 5% of the league.
On the other hand, his actual results have been solid. On the season his actual ERA is at 4.35 and since May 1, he has made 15 starts and has just a 3.10 ERA. He has allowed two runs or less in 11 of his last 15 starts. Davies is in the bottom 3% of the league in strikeout rate, but just somehow has managed to limit the damage most outings.
Both of these teams really struggle to generate offense. Arizona has been bad all season, especially on the road. Chicago has been ice cold over the last month and you have to wonder how much the looming trade deadline is weighing on this entire roster.
I really like Gallen’s stuff and think if he can stay healthy for a long stretch, he should return to the ace form we saw from him last season and be a bright spot for a bad Diamondbacks team.
Betting on Davies is always scary because you know regression is looming and he will turn back into a pumpkin eventually, let’s just hope it is not today and he can continue to be productive despite his underlying numbers.
This total opened at 11 and is currently at 10.5 with the under +100. I would bet under 10.5 down to -110 (or under 10 at +100 or better)
Pick: Under 10.5 (+100)