Diamondbacks vs Giants Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Tuesday, August 1
Kavin Mistry/Getty Images. Pictured: San Francisco Giants pitcher Alex Cobb
Diamondbacks vs. Giants Odds
After stealing the first of four in San Francisco on Monday night, the Diamondbacks will send their ace to the mound in an attempt to secure at least a split with the Giants in what's a big series for positioning out in the NL West.
Will the Giants level the score with Alex Cobb on the hill?
Let's break this one down in our Diamondbacks vs. Giants preview and prediction.
It wasn't exactly a great July for Zac Gallen, who allowed three or more runs in four of his five starts. In a lot of ways, it hasn't been a great season.
The right-hander has already had more bad starts in 2023 than he did for the entirety of the 2022 campaign. His strikeout rate has remained steady at 26.2%, but he's given up more hard contact than he has in his entire career and has seen his ground ball rate plummet to a career-worst 38.2%.
Those two things aren't usually a good combination, and the evidence is in Gallen's 3.85 xERA. It's not exactly a bad number, but it's not exactly becoming of a Cy Young Award candidate, someone Gallen appeared to be when the season started.
While Gallen's whiff rates have improved this year, they came down to a season-low 23.2% in the month of July.
That didn't exactly help him right his batted ball issues, either, considering his ground ball rate also fell to a season-low 35.3%. In fact, that number represents the worst since the 27-year-old's very first season in the bigs back in 2019.
Speaking of batted balls, the Diamondbacks have hit more fly balls than normal over the last two weeks and as a result have posted a .181 Isolated Power, up from their season-long mark of .169.
It's come along with a slight uptick in strikeouts and walks, so this team is selling out a bit more for power.
That's not exactly the best way to win games playing at one of the worst parks for home runs out in San Francisco, and it's worth noting that Arizona picked up just five hits in Monday's win and didn't hit one out of the yard.
It's a little bit easier to explain Alex Cobb's form. He is coming off a month of July in which he posted a 2.42 ERA in four starts, following up on three solid months.
Cobb has been consistent in limiting home runs, allowing just eight all year. And aside from walking 14 in the month of May, he's been excellent at limiting the free passes as well.
Cobb's 2.97 ERA looks awkward next to his 4.37 xERA, but it's ironic considering the right-hander was one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball last year by that very same metric.
Luck has certainly turned for the right-hander, whose ground ball rate is down roughly four points. But at 57.8%, Cobb is still one of the more extreme ground-ball pitchers in the game. His sinker has been hit a lot more in 2023, but his split-finger has performed a bit better this year.
In terms of this Giants offense, things are still very bleak. Their 71 wRC+ in the last 14 days ranks dead last in the league, though nothing has really changed in terms of their profile.
They're still a team driven by power, so it's no surprise that things haven't worked out with their .138 ISO in the last two weeks.
Diamondbacks vs. Giants Betting Pick
The Giants love someone like Gallen, whose issues lie in the power department. San Francisco ranks sixth in fly ball rate and owns a respectable 12.1% home run-to-fly ball ratio, which makes this start a tricky one for the Snakes righty, even in a pitcher-friendly park.
On the other side, while Cobb's been a bit lucky to survive this long with his 44.1% hard-hit rate, his ability to keep the ball on the ground should really help him against a team that has been selling out for fly balls and power lately.
Cobb spun 7 1/3 scoreless innings in his only start versus the Diamondbacks this year and should profile well in this game.
I think the Giants are the side you want here; their offense should have a rare moment to shine against Gallen, who's taken a step back this year and is coming off of one of his worst-ever months.