Thursday MLB Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions for Dodgers vs. Brewers: Back Burnes, Milwaukee in Big Spot (Aug. 18)
Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Corbin Burnes
- The Brewers host the Dodgers in the finale of this midweek season.
- Mikwaukee has struggled of late and is looking to ace Corbin Burnes to get the club back on track.
- Mike Ianniello previews the game and shares his best bet below.
Dodgers vs. Brewers Odds
|Over/Under||7.5 (+100 / -120)|
|Time||2:10 p.m. ET|
Dave Roberts has done an unbelievable job of keeping his team focused throughout the dog days of summer. The Dodgers have played in the World Series three times in the past five years and could seemingly roll out of bed and reach the postseason.
They have a dominant 81-35 record and despite being 17 games up in the division race, have not taken their foot off the gas. Since the start of July, LA has gone a ridiculous 34-7.
Milwaukee led the NL Central for most of the season, but the Brewers have gone just 5-9 in August and were passed for the division lead by the Cardinals on August 6. Milwaukee now sits three games back in the division and is on the outside looking in at the playoffs, even with the extra Wild Card spot.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Can Anyone Stop This Team?
Andrew Heaney was one of the worst pitchers in the league last year. Splitting time between the Angels and Yankees, he had a 5.83 ERA and ranked in the bottom 21% of the league in barrel rate allowed. However, this season he has looked –- dare I say, good?
Injuries have limited Heaney to just seven starts, but he has a 1.16 ERA in his first year with the Dodgers and has allowed more than one run in just one start. Granted, he has only lasted past the fifth inning once and his average exit velocity allowed is actually higher than it was last season.
The Dodgers offense is expectedly the best in baseball. They lead the league in runs scored, wOBA and wRC+ — all by a big margin. Los Angeles doesn’t really have any one player who is having a MVP-caliber season, it just has an entire lineup filled with really good hitters.
Milwaukee Brewers: Burnes Turning in Another Strong Season
Corbin Burnes has followed up his Cy Young campaign with another tremendous season. After posting a 2.42 ERA and a 35.6 K% last year, Burnes has a 2.39 ERA and a 32.3 K% this season. Burnes’ 11.39 K/9 rate is also the fourth best in the league.
Only one pitch in baseball has a better run value this season than Burnes’ cutter. His go-to pitch is still as nasty as ever, allowing just a .193 batting average against with the pitch he throws 56% of the time.
Milwaukee’s offense really held its pitching staff back last season, but has been much improved this time around. Over the past month, the Brewers rank sixth in wOBA and wRC+. Rowdy Tellez has probably been Milwaukee’s best hitter, but Kolten Wong, Hunter Renfroe and Christian Yelich are all dangerous at the plate.
Milwaukee’s playoff hopes are rapidly slipping away as the Brewers have already been passed by St. Louis and continue to fall further back. With the Braves, Phillies and Padres all playing good baseball and keeping their grip on the Wild Card spots, the Brew Crew could find themselves with an early tee time in October if they don’t figure things out quickly.
Enter Corbin Burnes. The Brewers will have the defending Cy Young Award winner on the hill in a desperate spot against the league’s top team.
Andrew Heaney has been much better this season, but it is in a very limited sample size and he is due for regression. He is still giving up a ton of a hard contact and his two-pitch mix should be easy to figure out the second time through the order.
The Brewers have been much better against right-handed pitchers this season and rank third in the league with .329 wOBA against righties.
Los Angeles is finishing up a seven-day road trip on Thursday afternoon before finally flying back home to Los Angeles. Don’t be surprised if a couple key Dodgers get the day off for the getaway game.
At -104, I’ll back the defending Cy Young Award winner and the team desperate for a win on getaway day. I would play them at -110 or better.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -104