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Dodgers vs. Cubs Game 2 Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet the Over in Southpaw Battle (May 7)

Dodgers vs. Cubs Game 2 Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet the Over in Southpaw Battle (May 7) article feature image
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Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Daniel Norris (Cubs)

  • In the second game of the Dodgers-Cubs doubleheader from Wrigley Field, L.A. will send Tyler Anderson to the hill while Daniel Norris will pitch for Chicago.
  • Anderson has struggled on the road and Norris has not been good this season regardless of location.
  • Jules Posner dives into game two and offers up his pick.

Dodgers vs. Cubs Game 2 Odds

Dodgers Odds -185
Cubs Odds +180
Over/Under 7.5 (-110/-110)
Time 7:40 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs link up for game two of their doubleheader. While the weather may be less of a factor to start the game, the majority of it will be another cold and windy one.

This time around, two different lefties will take the hill: Tyler Anderson (Dodgers) and Daniel Norris (Cubs). That’s right. Two games. Two lefties.

Frankly, I could just copy and paste my analysis from game one over to this game guide and call it a day. Unfortunately, I have editors that won’t let me get away with that.

Can Anderson Turn Things Around on Road?

The Dodgers are still good against LHP on the road.

However, their own game two starter’s numbers tell a different story.

Tyler Anderson has the game two start and dating back to his bounce-back 2020 season, Anderson is a much different pitcher on the road than he is at home.

Since 2020, Tyler Anderson has posted a 5.58 ERA and a 4.23 FIP on the road. While he has 2.93 ERA at home over that same timespan, his 4.34 FIP at home shows that he’s experienced some bad luck on the road.

The data supports that, as his .304 BABIP on the road and his .254 BABIP at home would explain some of the variance in his splits. The other factor would be that he averages almost a full walk more on the road than he does at home.

The one extra baserunner — plus the extra half a hit — makes a huge difference in terms of his ERA.


Cubs Have Problems Against Lefties

Unfortunately for the Cubs, they still don’t hit lefties very well at home. However, Anderson is still averaging around 3 BB/9 on the road, but his BABIP away from home so far this season is only .227.

One of the Cubs’ issues is that they have the ninth-highest K% and the fourth-lowest BB% at home against LHP so far this season. In order to try their hand at the BABIP game, they’re going to have to get runners on and put the ball in play against Anderson.

Those are two things the Cubs haven’t done well in their given situation this season.

Speaking of lefties, Norris gets the start for the Cubs. He has struggled so far this season, but the Cubs need pitching and Norris does that professionally.

Interestingly, Norris’ expected stats are around three runs better than his actual stats, which shows he may be due for some positive regression. But the Dodgers just don’t seem like the kind of team you positively regress against.

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Dodgers-Cubs Pick

The weather will be a factor again, but if the Cubs have to dip into their bullpen early in game one or game two, it seems they’re going to be at a huge disadvantage to a Dodgers team that cultivates arms at a suspicious rate.

The Dodgers’ run differential so far this month — even in a small sample — shows their offense is hot and able to carry a total. The over is the play here and should be taken to the -120 threshold.

Pick: Over 7.5

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