Dodgers vs. Giants Game 2 Odds, Picks, Predictions: Total Has Value on Saturday (Oct. 9)
Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Kevin Gausman.
Dodgers vs. Giants Odds
|Over/Under||7.5 (+100 / -122)|
|Time||9:07 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Runs have been hard to come by for the Los Angeles Dodgers through two postseason games, and that could remain the case against the ever-effective Kevin Gausman on Saturday.
The Giants hurler will aim to cement San Fran’s NLDS advantage after a strong showing by his team in Game 1. The Dodgers’ bats will look for a breakout performance, though Julio Urias should have a handle on things taking the hill in this one.
With the stage set, let’s get into the best way to bet this one, and why it doesn’t involve a side.
Will Dodgers Offense Turn it Around?
It’s time to come to grips with the fact that this Dodgers offense may not be the same without Max Muncy, and may not be quite as strong as it was during last year’s World Series run.
I don’t say that to discredit the heroic efforts of Logan Webb and Adam Wainwright — those are difficult guys to get baserunners against — but I do think we’ll slowly start to see this team slip into a slump, having just lost Muncy last week. The left-handed slugger carried this offense at times during the season, and it’s simply not easy to full the shoes of a guy who was able to get on base as much as he did.
At any rate, if you are keeping track at home, that’s now 12 hits, three runs and 11 strikeouts in two games for L.A., who has yet to see anything at all out of Corey Seager, A.J. Pollock and Cody Bellinger.
Keep in mind that this is a team that struck out in just 19.8% of its plate appearances in September and October and hit .250. Most of the production came in the power department with 51 homers during that time and a .202 ISO. Through this small two-game sample, we haven’t seen that whatsoever, and things aren’t about to get any easier against the best pitching staff in baseball.
Luckily for the Dodgers, they have a pretty good staff in their own right. Kicking things off will be left-hander Julio Urias, who for my money has been the best pitcher in the National League in the second half with a sparkling 2.04 ERA and just four home runs allowed in 14 starts.
He was dominant in last year’s postseason out of the bullpen for Los Angeles, and should pick up right where he left off here. He enters on the back of two straight gems, allowing just one earned run against the Diamondbacks and Brewers.
Giants’ Bullpen Well-Rested After Webb’s Gem
Life is good for the Giants, who on Friday were able to assert their dominance over the 106-win team they narrowly beat out in the NL West. Their pitching staff flexed its muscles with Logan Webb pitching deep into the game, and that should set things up beautifully for the rest of the series.
Of course, pitching has been the story for the Giants, so why not focus on it? This bullpen had the best ERA in baseball over the second half of the season, and is very well-rested after Webb spun 7 2/3 scoreless innings. In front of that group will be yet another quality starter in Kevin Gausman, who has pitched to a 3.21 ERA in his three starts this year against the Dodgers.
He should pose to be a nuisance to the Dodgers, who love to walk, considering he’s issued a free pass to just 6.5% of the hitters he’s faced this year. That ranks among the top 23% of pitchers, and is nothing new for the strike-throwing righty.
The Giants offense will be facing a left-hander here, something that is no huge challenge. They sit ninth in the league with a 103 wRC+ against southpaws, posting the best walk rate in the majors at 10.3%. The left-hander in this case is a very good one, but the Giants have seen him five times, touching him up for six runs in one start. It’s a small sample among four other really good starts, but perhaps it provides some hope.
Both offenses seem to be up against it here. I’d back Gausman’s ability to command his pitches against a Dodgers team that is very patient at the dish and won’t be able to get the same type of traffic as they would against a pitcher with a league-average walk rate.
On the other side, the Giants haven’t been great against lefties, and while they did knock Urias around once, I wouldn’t bet on them doing that again considering the other four starts he had against San Francisco this year, and his recent form.
I like the Giants’ offense just a little bit more than the Dodgers’ right now, but it’s not a large enough edge to take either side of this pick ’em. Instead, I’ll take the under here in what should be a duel between two elite starters and two lockdown bullpens.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-122)