Dodgers vs Padres Picks, Odds for NLDS Game 3 MLB Playoffs
Getty Images. Pictured: Blake Snell
- The Dodgers are favored over the Padres in Game 3 of the NLDS tonight in San Diego.
- Los Angeles will have Tony Gonsolin on the mound, while San Diego will counter with Blake Snell.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.
Dodgers vs. Padres Game 3 Odds
| Dodgers Odds | -125 |
| Padres Odds | +105 |
| Over/Under | 7 |
| Time | 8:37 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Game 2 was not exactly the pitcher's duel that we all expected. The teams traded early home runs and created a bunch of traffic on the bases, which caused Kershaw and Darvish to be in the showers by the sixth inning.
Although, that is when the game got interesting. The Padres would strike twice from that point on, including a big solo homer in the top of the eighth by Jake Cronenworth to put the Padres up two and eventually secure the win.
Now with the series tied, we head to San Diego for a crucial Game 3. The Padres will hand the ball to their lethal lefty, Blake Snell, who will look to rebound after he walked six Mets in his start in Game 2 of the Wild Card Round.
He will be opposed by Tony Gonsolin. The right-hander had a breakout campaign where he was named an All-Star. However, he had an up-and-down second half. But given how good he was at the end of the regular season, the outing could go in the opposite direction.
Who will take the upper hand in this series? Let's take a closer look to find out.
Can Snell Shut Down Dodgers' Bats?
Through the first two games of this series, we have seen the Dodgers lineup show why they led the majors in run differential. They've jumped on the Padres early and with authority, as Trea Turner has led the way with two homers in as many games. However, their bats may play much differently in the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park.
On top of that, they will be facing a starter who is due for a bounce-back performance. Snell finished the regular season on a tear, as his last four starts he allowed just two earned runs and struck out 25 batters in 25 innings. However, his first postseason start against New York could not have gone worse, and it's doubtful we'll see that version of him in this outing as he's due for positive regression.
Snell enters this start with a 2.80 FIP and a 3.19 ERA. He has been a pitcher this season who has not allowed much contact overall, but when teams hit him, it was generally hard. The Dodgers were a team that fit that mold this season. The Dodger faced Snell on three separate occasions, and in two of them, he came out on top, especially in his dominant 12-strikeout performance back in July.
That trend holds the same when you look at the bigger picture. The Dodgers have complied 166 at-bats against Snell. Thus far, they are hitting .235 with a .428 SLG and a .329 wOBA. While those numbers are due to go up a bit, they also have a 31 percent strikeout rate against him.
Padres' Big Bats Coming Alive?
Entering Game 2 of the series, we talked about how the bottom of the Padres' order had carried the offense through the postseason. Well, in Game 2, the top of the order came alive as Manny Machado and Juan Soto each made an impact at the plate.
Now, this red-hot lineup will get to face Gonsolin, who went an incredible 16-1 this season with a 2.14 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Gonsolin also succeeded against this Padres lineup, the only time he faced them this season, as he tossed five shutout innings and struck out six batters.
If you look at Gonsolin's underlying metrics, one thing sticks out: His average exit velocity ranks in the bottom 35 percent of all qualified pitchers. However, if you dig even deeper, you will see that he is specifically due to regress against righties as his FIP against them is 3.78, and it's even worse on the road at 4.71. So that would highlight Machado, Will Myers and even Austin Nola as guys due to succeed against Gonsolin.
Though they will not be alone, as several lefties in their lineup have done well against Gonsolin in the past. Jurickson Profar is 5-for-10 with three doubles, Trent Grisham is 4-for-10 with a homer, Soto is 2-for-6 with a triple and Josh Bell is 2-for-4 with an average exit velocity of 92 mph.
The last thing you could factor into this matchup is the rust of Gonsolin. He has not pitched since October 3rd. That is 11 days without stepping on a big league mound. We've already seen how the extra layoff has impacted other starters, and all signs point to Gonsolin struggling here.
Dodgers-Padres Pick
The Padres grabbing Game 2 of this series helps put this critical Game 3 in their favor. They are going to return home to a massive crowd with momentum.
While it may not seem like it, they have the edge on the mound in this one, as Snell and Gonsolin are trending in opposite directions. Look for Snell to be sharp, and the bats should give him early run support.
Back the Padres to go up in the series.
Pick: Padres +110
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