Dodgers vs. Rockies MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Value on German Marquez and Colorado as Home Underdogs (Sunday, July 31)
Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Starting pitcher German Marquez of the Colorado Rockies.
Dodgers vs. Rockies Odds
|Time||3:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
While the Yankees have had the best record in baseball all season, the Dodgers, the premier team of the last five years, still have the second-best record in all of baseball at 67-33 entering play Sunday, just two wins behind New York. The Dodgers are also second in all of baseball behind the Yankees in Run Differential at positive-191.
While the Rockies don’t have the worst record in the National League, they enter play Sunday 22 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. Can Colorado pull this one out and move any closer to the Dodgers in the division?
Can the Dodgers’ Righty Bats Step Up Against Marquez?
The Dodgers once again have a great record this year but not because of their play against the Rockies. Los Angeles is just 7-5 in 12 matchups with Colorado so far this season with a positive-11 Run Differential head-to-head against the Rockies.
Los Angeles will face German Marquez, who has a 4.59 xFIP, 19% K%, 7% BB%, and 49% Ground Ball Rate. Marquez has allowed a .251 ISO to right-handed hitters this season, and Trea Turner, Mookie Betts, Will Smith and Trayce Thompson each have ISOs of at least .199 against right-handed pitching this year.
Marquez has been consistent on the mound lately, completing at least six innings in each of his last four starts, including two at Coors Field.
He’s faced the Dodgers twice as he recently completed six innings while allowing four earned runs and striking out seven in Los Angeles. Marquez also threw seven innings of one-run ball at home against the Dodgers in his very first start of the season.
Rockies Have a Strong Home Field Advantage
The home field advantage that Coors Field presents is still enough to lift up a mediocre lineup for the Rockies. The Rockies lead all of baseball averaging 5.64 runs per game at home this season.
Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin is enjoying an All-Star season as he has a 2.26 ERA despite a 4.33 xFIP. The Rockies don’t have nearly the powerful lineup the Dodgers do, but Charlie Blackmon and C.J. Cron are the biggest power threats for Gonsolin to worry about as each of them have ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching this season.
Colorado is a much better home team with a 30-26 record at home compared to a 16-30 record on the road. Gonsolin hasn’t pitched at Coors Field since the beginning of April, and the Dodgers were monitoring his innings at the time as he only pitched three innings. Gonsolin has pitched better at home this year as he has a 1.67 ERA at home compared to a 2.96 ERA on the road.
I like the Rockies here. While the Dodgers are undoubtedly the better team and seemingly have the better starting pitcher on the mound, the Rockies aren’t nearly as bad as they are on the road compared to at home. Gonsolin’s xFIP remains in the 4.00s, and that regression could come at any time. I think there’s value on the Rockies moneyline at +165 at DraftKings and would bet them down to +150.
Pick: Rockies ML +165 (DraftKings)