You have to check out Fanatics Sportsbook's newest big-money contest, the MLB Long Ball Jackpot.
It’s already paid out some big winners… Maybe you’ll be next?!?!
Fanatics Long Ball Jackpot: An Introduction
Here's how it works:
- Opt in and bet a minimum of $5 on a player to hit a runs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">home run. You can only select one player.
- If your player hits the longest home run on the MLB slate, you split $50,000 in FanCash with everyone else who bet that player.
- But because the longest home run on a given day is pretty random and about 270 players are eligible on a 15-game slate, there have been some huge winners already.
- Home run distance is measured via MLB's StatCast, which captures "the flight of the path based on radar as far as the radar will allow us to track it" and "if the radar loses it, we project beyond it based on the physics." So, it's not a perfect measurement.
While Fanatics is the first sportsbook to run a competition based on the length of home runs in baseball, several other sportsbooks offer similar contests.
For example, DraftKings runs the NBA King of the Court contest, in which the player who bets the highest PRA total on the slate wins. Of course, this more often than not results in minuscule payouts, given how top-heavy the league is.
On the contrary, the Long Ball Jackpot offers much greater randomness, resulting in much higher payouts.
As such, the contest is far more strategic.
Long Ball Game Theory
On the surface, you’d think you want to target players who hit a ton of homers.
But the game theory in this contest runs deeper, with more statistical variables to consider.
For starters, average home run distance and launch angle are of vital importance for picking Long Ball Jackpot winners. Any search for this contest should start by identifying a group of players who thrive in these categories.
Additionally, you have to take the weather, specifically wind speed, into account. Heavy winds can drastically impact the distance of any home run. At the same time, take into account the ballpark, as some are far easier than others to hit longer homers.
Finally, taking a contrarian stance in this contest is the best route. There’s little correlation between how elite a hitter is and how long he can crush a home run on any given day.
To maximize potential profit, you must get creative with your selections so your winnings are not split among a large group.
MLB HR Picks for Tuesday, April 28
Jac Caglianone
vs Athletics, 9:40 PM ET
I know Caglianone only has two home runs this year, but this is a decent matchup to go yard.
He is playing in Sacramento, where the weather should be great for a long flyball.
Caglianone has the fastest bat speed on the Royals, and his two homers have come over the last five games. His flyball rate and hard contact rate get a bump when facing RHP this season, and in this one, we have Athletics pitcher Aaron Civale on the mound.
Civale’s HR per 9 rate and fly-ball rate are above average when seeing left-handed batters this year over six starts.
Pick: Jac Caglianone Home Run
Ian Happ
vs. Padres, 9:40 PM ET
Happ has four home runs this season, and each has gone over 410 feet, so I love him to get a long dinger against Walker Buehler.
Although Buehler has only allowed one HR this season, he did allow 22 last year, and right-handed batters have been getting the best of him.
Last season, Buehler was allowing over two HRs per nine innings to right-handed batters, and that has seemed to carry over in 2026 with righties having a superior hard contact rate and flyball rate against him.
While Happ is a switch hitter, I expect him to be on the right side of the plate for these at-bats, and when facing RHP, he’s been a bit more successful for hard contact and fly balls compared to when he sees lefties.
Pick: Ian Happ Home Run
