Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Jon Anderson has that job for Monday, August 3.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Cam Schlittler Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-130)
- Spencer Jones HR (+430)
- James Wood 1+ HR (+260)
- James Wood Over 2.5 H+R+RBI (+130)
- Dodgers Moneyline (-126)
- Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 TB (+139)
- Brewers Moneyline -149
- Ian Seymour Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-151)
- Under 11.5 (-114)
- Over 9 (-118)
- Yordan Alvarez HR (+293)
- Kazuma Okamoto HR (+358)
It's trade deadline day! The deadline hits at 6 pm ET, so we're going to see a flurry of roster changes and changed lineups as we approach the lock time for this slate. Keep all of that in mind when wagering tonight.
Cardinals vs Yankees Picks
The Cardinals are sputtering a bit. They are two games under .500, in fourth place in the division, and are seeing their playoff chances slip away. Nobody really expected the Cardinals to do much this year, so in some ways this is still a positive season for them. But it's looking like it will at least another season or two before we get the Cardinals back playing in October.
Their problem recently has been the offense. Since July 1st, they are dead last in the league with a .617 OPS. Check out the bottom five:
Hey look at that, the Yankees are not a ton better than these Cardinals. But the Yankees have a huge advantage in this one given the pitching matchup. It's Michael McGreevy (4.55 SIERA) against Cam Schlitter (2.85 SIERA) in New York.
One interesting note on the Cardinals' offensive skid – they are still not striking out much. They have a 20.8% team K% over this last month. That's one of the better rates in the league. Their problem has been a lack of runs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">homers (22) and hard contact (.305 xwOBA).
So I'm eyeing up the K line on Schlittler. We have a price of under 7.5 strikeouts at -136for one of the Cy Young favorites. The projection I have on Schlittler for this game is just 6.4 strikeouts. We have very low hitter strikeout rates down the list for St. Louis.
- Wetherholt 16%
- Walker 29%
- Burleson 15%
- Herrera 19%
- Nootbaar 19%
- Winn 19%
- Church 22%
- Jordan 15%
- Crooks 33%
All of those K% are from the last two seasons against right-handed pitchers. The Cardinals don't do much damage, but they get a bunch of balls into play. They don't walk much, either. So they're up there looking to get the bat on the ball early and often.
The Yankees should win the game, but as a -205 favorite, there's not much value in betting them. And McGreevy has a way about him of limiting hard contact and usually keeping things mostly under control. That plus the Yankees' lack of offensive firepower right now makes me lean to the under on this game, but my favorite bet via the projection is that Schlittler under.
One longer shot pick for some fun: Spencer Jones has dropped his K% to the mid-20s over his last 30 trips to the plate. It's small-sample stuff, but his contact rate (which stabilizes more quickly) has also improved to the mid-60s. That's still bad, but he was below 60% for a while, so we're seeing the young power hitter make some strides. Against McGreevy, I like his chances of hitting a couple balls hard.
Pick:
- Cam Schlittler Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-130)
- Spencer Jones HR (+430)
Nationals vs Phillies Picks
It is a James Wood day. He's the #4 projected home run hitter in my model with a projection of 0.29 homers. He's also near the top of the board in my matchups model, which checks on how hitters have performed against pitch movement profiles like the ones they'll see tonight. It's Aaron Nola going for the Phillies. He hasn't been as bad as the numbers suggest this year, and his curveball is still awesome, but it's a terrible matchup for him against Wood.
The Nationals are in a sort of sell mode, shipping Luis Garcia Jr. to the Yankees yesterday, so I don't want to bet on their offense for the rest of the season too much. I think they overperformed a bit early, and I do think they'll have a less-than-impressive final two months. But James Wood is putting together the best season of his career, and this matchup is perfect for him.
Pick:
- James Wood 1+ HR (+260)
- James Wood Over 2.5 H+R+RBI (+130)
Dodgers vs Cubs Picks
Two crafty lefties going at it here. It's Justin Wrobleskiagainst Matthew Boyd. The Dodgers have embraced their role as the league's villain, fair or unfair, and we'll see Skubal make his first start non-Tigers start in this series.
But first, it's Wrobleski. The guy has a 2.88 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and almost as many wins (11) as homers surrendered (12) this year. And yet, his job security is in question now with Skubal in town and Blake Snelland Tyler Glasnownearing returns! An embarrassment of riches for the Dodgers, and we have them as a -126 road favorite in this one.
Boyd hasn't been very good since getting back from the IL. He has just a 16.7% K% with a 9.8% SwStr% in his seven starts. That SwStr% is way down from what we usually see from him, and it makes us think that maybe there's something not quite right. His four-seamer has a 5.4% SwStr% since getting back, and he's given up a .320 xwOBA, which is also well above what we're used to.
The Dodgers have to be feeling very good about themselves right now. But the Cubs are a good offense against lefties. Going back about a month, they're hitting .288/.374/.512 against lefties, and the location of this game is in their favor as well. At home against lefties since June, they have a team .839 OPS.
The one guy really surging right now is Seiya Suzuki. Over his last 60 PAs against lefties, he has a huge 1.102 OPS with five homers. He's healthy and crushing again, and we've seen a lot of these torrid streaks from Suzuki the last few years since he's gotten into the bigs.
I like the Dodgers as only a slight favorite against a struggling pitcher, but I do like Suzuki's chances to make some noise as well.
Pick:
- Dodgers Moneyline (-126)
- Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 TB (+139)
Pirates vs Brewers Picks
The Pirates are playing their way out of the playoffs. They just lost three of four in Cincinnati and are now below a 20% chance of making the postseason after a very encouraging first four months of the season.
And now they have to go into Milwaukee for a four-game set against the Brewers. This schedule has been brutal for Pittsburgh. They're finishing up a stretch where they have to play 14 games in 14 days. So the bullpen is taxed, and their offense has really cratered.
They'll miss Misiorowski in this series, but Brandon Sproat is not a cake matchup. Over his last two months of play, Sproat has a 24% K% with a 10% BB% and just a .313 xwOBA allowed. The Brewers have gone into the lab with him, and they're getting increasingly better production from him. At home against a cold Pirates lineup, I really like the Brewers' chances.
I don't expect a great outing from Bubba Chandler in this spot. He has not been getting strikeouts, and his command issues are well known. The Brewers have seen him, and they aren't going to do him any favors in the box tonight.
In my sims model, the Brewers are the biggest favorite on the board, winning nearly 60% of the sims. The arrow is pointing up on Sproat and the Brewers, and down on Chandler and the Pirates. I think it's an easy Milwaukee win.
Pick:
- Brewers Moneyline -149
Rays vs Rockies Picks
We have another Coors series here as the first-place Rays head up the mountain for three games where they will be heavily favored. The Rays have already improved their roster, adding Freddy Peralta this weekend, and they are very likely not done. They're linked to Luis Arraez among others.
That acquisition would take their already super low team strikeout rate to a new level, but whatever they do today, those guys won't be in the lineup tonight.
They send Ian Seymour to the bump to take on Michael Lorenzen, who continues to take the ball every fifth game for the Rockies as they try to get through another grueling 162-game season.
Is Seymour suited to handle Coors Field? The elevation has its most serious impact on pitchers who rely heavily on movement. Seymour throws about 90- 91 mph on the fastball and features a changeup as his best main pitch. That's good news for his chances of handling the Rockies in Coors.
The Rays have limited his pitch counts a bit of late. He's thrown 61, 87, and 71 pitches in his last three outings after a three-game stretch where he averaged almost 90 pitches. So they're easing off a little bit. My projection is still well above five strikeouts for him as he takes on a lineup that does strike out a good bit. It's not the same 27%+ K% Rockies lineup of previous years, but my projections like what it's seeing on Seymour in this one.
I was surprised that the Rays are only -170, I thought they'd be a bigger favorite than that.
Lorenzen has been pretty much the same guy at home as he has been on the road.
- at home: 16% K%, 10% BB%, .354 xwOBA
- on road: 16% K%, 6% BB%, .357 xwOBA
The difference is the walk rate. I don't see any big difference in the approach at home to make sense of that, but it's quite possible that he's just trying to avoid the center of the zone a little bit more at home given what can happen when you allow well-hit balls into play in Coors.
The Rays are one of the lowest strikeout rate teams in the league, but they also do their fair share of walking with a projected 9% BB% on this lineup tonight. So I'd be looking at the walk line for Lorenzen. If you can get an over 1.5 around even money, that would be a good one. Lorenzen is projected for 3.6 strikeouts and 2.3 walks in this spot.
I'm going to lean into the Seymour projection. A 5.6 strikeout projection clears the line by more than one strikeout, and that's always a nice spot for us.
The other thing my model is pointing to is the under 11.5. I just don't see this Rays lineup as one that's likely to throw up 7+ runs, and that's probably what it will take to get this game to a dozen runs since we don't care much for the Rockies matchup with Seymour and a good Rays bullpen. The under 11.5 is one of the best bets in my whole model tonight.
Pick:
- Ian Seymour Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-151)
- Under 11.5 (-114)
Blue Jays vs Astros Picks
The worst pitching matchup of the night is right here. It's Shane Bieber against Cristian Javier. Bieber's return hasn't gone well. He has a 5.74 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, a 15.6% K%, and a 12.8% BB% this year in 31.1 innings. He has 22 strikeouts, 18 walks, and seven homers given up. It's ugly right now.
The Astros will send Cristian Javier to the mound in place of Tatsuya Imai, whom they've moved to the bullpen.
Javier reappeared in relief of Imai last time and threw five scoreless innings. That might get people interested in him again, but I wouldn't go there. Javier's last three years have been sporadic time in the Major Leagues:
- 20% K%, 12% BB%, 4.94 ERA, 1.45 WHIP
His pitch mix is bad. His fastball has always been a big problem, and he's been a super high fly ball rate guy when he's been in there. The Blue Jays don't hit a ton of homers, but they'll probably find a way to get a ball or two out of the yard in this one.
I think there will be fireworks in this game. These pitchers are bad, and I think these teams are going to want their 4-5 innings from both of them without the benefit of an off day between these series.
I thought we'd be seeing a 10.5 O/U in this one. But no, it's just at nine! This is a situation where the markets must think Javier is much better than he actually is. Sign me up for some runs in this game.
Pick:
- Over 9 (-118)
- Yordan Alvarez HR (+293)
- Kazuma Okamoto HR (+358)
Anderson's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, August 3
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Cam Schlittler Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-130)
- Spencer Jones HR (+430)
- James Wood 1+ HR (+260)
- James Wood Over 2.5 H+R+RBI (+130)
- Dodgers Moneyline (-126)
- Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 TB (+139)
- Brewers Moneyline -149
- Ian Seymour Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-151)
- Under 11.5 (-114)
- Over 9 (-118)
- Yordan Alvarez HR (+293)
- Kazuma Okamoto HR (+358)
