Giants vs Braves Pick Saturday | MLB Odds, Predictions Today (August 19)
Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Logan Webb #62 of the San Francisco Giants
Giants vs. Braves Odds
Atlanta will look to build upon its 41-20 record at Truist Park in Game Two of it's series versus San Francisco on Saturday. Logan Webb (3.26, 163 IP) will take on Yonny Chirinos (5.22 ERA, 81 IP), offering the Giants a solid chance to steal a win from the league leading Braves.
Logan Webb will be the key to San Francisco's hopes of a rare victory over the Braves this Saturday. The Giants shorthanded offense has been hopeless of late, struggling to a 30th ranked wRC+ of 62 over the last 30 days. They have hit to an entirely unsustainable BABIP of .255, which is drastically below league average during that same period.
Even considering that the Giants rank last with a hard contact rate of just 28.8% in that sample, they are due for some positive regression at the plate in terms of BABIP. On top of the more obvious logic that the remaining talent in the lineup does not project to be a historically bad unit.
Logan Webb enters this game in steady form, and remains one of the better ground ball pitchers in baseball. Opposing batters own a ground ball percentage of 60.8, and Webb owns a stellar xFIP of 2.95 in his 163 innings of work this season. Since 2021 Webb has induced double play's 18% of the time in 334 opportunities, which is the highest clip among qualified starting pitchers.
His sinker and changeup both continue to rate well above average, and Webb owns a 103 Stuff+ rating this season with a Location+ mark of 103. Over the last five games Webb's xFIP has trended downwards, and his velocities have remained consistent.
Yonny Chirinos offers an enticing matchup for the Giants struggling offense. He has been hard-hit 44.9% of the time this season, while striking out just 14.1% of batters. His 6.10 xERA is nearly a full run greater than his 5.22 ERA, and he owns an xFIP of 5.02. His K:BB ratio of is tied for the third lowest mark in baseball.
Chirinos' arsenal still rates well (104 Stuff+), but he is heavily reliant on a slider that is getting crushed, and sequencing remains a concern. Batters have hit to an xSLG of .704 against Chirinos' slider this season. However opponents have a miss-rate of just 12% versus his fastball, which is the second lowest mark among qualified starters.
The Braves have been the best offense in baseball this season with an average of 5.83 runs per game. Their 139 wRC+ over the last 30 days is the top mark in the league by a wide margin, and it comes with a hard-hit rate of 39.8%.
Giants vs. Braves
Betting Pick & Prediction
With a high quality starting pitcher in Webb taking on Chirinos, the Giants have an extremely notable pitching edge to start this game. Even considering the gigantic gulf in form between these two offenses, I believe the Giants are worthy of being a favorite to win the first five as a result.
San Francisco is priced at -106 to win the first five innings on FanDuel, which is my favorite play from this game. Anything better than -110 is worth a wager.