Guardians vs Mets Odds & Prediction: Target Wednesday’s Total

Guardians vs Mets Odds & Prediction: Target Wednesday’s Total article feature image

Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: Triston McKenzie

Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets Odds

Wednesday, May 22
1:10 p.m. ET
MLB Network
Guardians Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-115o / -105u
Mets Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-115o / -105u
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The latest Guardians vs Mets odds for Wednesday have the Guardians listed as -135 moneyline favorites, with an over/under of 8.5 (-105o /-115u).

Right-hander Triston McKenzie is slated to take the mound for Cleveland, while New York returns southpaw Jose Quintana. For my Guardians vs Mets prediction, I will be looking at the total.

Let's dive into the Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Mets odds and make a prediction in our MLB betting preview for Wednesday, May 22.

Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

Cleveland Guardians

McKenzie has gotten off to a solid start in 2024. Through his first nine starts, he boasts a 3.23 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.

However, his underlying metrics suggest that regression is looming. Entering this matchup, McKenzie ranks in the 30th percentile or lower in xERA, average exit velocity and barrel rate.

The right-hander could possibly get some solid run support though, as Cleveland ranks in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases. This success could continue against Quintana, a pitcher whom this current Guardians lineup boasts a .351 BA, .432 SLG and .367 wOBA against through 41 career plate appearances.

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New York Mets

That success against Quintana is likely to continue, based on how poorly the left-hander has thrown this season. Through nine starts, he is 1-4 with a fade-worthy 5.21 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.

Entering this matchup in particularly poor form, Quintana is 0-2 over his past three starts with a troubling 9.69 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. There were 11 or more total runs scored in two those three outings.

Based on his underlying metrics, positive regression is unlikely as he ranks in the ninth percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and hard-hit rate. These woes are likely to continue against Cleveland, a team he is 0-2 against over the past two meetings with a 4.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.

Guardians vs Mets

Betting Pick & Prediction

I just don't really trust either of these starting pitchers, so nine runs shouldn't be too much to ask for in this matchup. Quintana is terrible compared to his peers, and his analytics suggest that it's going to keep getting worse before it gets better.

McKenzie has been better thus far, but his underlying metrics also suggest that steep regression is looming. New York's lineup is certainly not the scariest group of guys to face in this league, but it is powerful enough to take advantage of that expected regression.

On the other hand, the Guardians have been one of the better teams at the dish this season, ranking fifth in runs scored per game. The weather should also give us a nice boost, given that the forecast calls for heavy winds blowing out to right-center during the game.

Pick: Over 8.5 (-108 at DraftKings | Play to -115)

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