MLB Odds, Picks for Guardians vs. Padres: Cleveland Offers Value as Underdog

MLB Odds, Picks for Guardians vs. Padres: Cleveland Offers Value as Underdog article feature image

Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: Mike Clevinger

  • The Padres are slight home favorites tonight against the Guardians.
  • Mike Clevinger takes the mound for San Diego, while Aaron Civale will toe the rubber for Cleveland.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

Guardians vs. Padres Odds

Guardians Odds+125
Padres Odds-145
Time9:40 p.m. ET
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians head into San Diego to open a short, two-game set against the Padres on Tuesday night. Both teams hope to improve upon their respective playoff positioning in a significant interleague series.

The Guardians face a former friend in Mike Clevinger, while Aaron Civale looks to get the Guardians a road victory. Clevinger will be making his second career start against his former team in what could be a closely contested matchup.

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Civale Turning Things Around For Guardians?

Civale has not had a great year, but he has seemed to turn things around some over his last four starts. In that time, he's posted an ERA of 2.00 with a 1.11 FIP. On the other hand, he got to face the Detroit Tigers twice, the Kansas City Royals, and only threw one inning against the Chicago White Sox.

Overall, it seems Civale has also experienced some tough luck this season. While his 7.26 road ERA is scary, his 3.95 road FIP means he's definitely been on the wrong side of some bad breaks.

The Guardians' offense continues to give opposing pitchers fits. Despite their lack of conventional thunder, they still manage to produce. Presently they have a 117 wRC+ over the past two weeks against RHP on the road, which is fifth in MLB.

Regression Coming For Clevinger?

Clevinger will be making his second career start and his second start of the season against his former team. He did not fare well in his first start, but wasn't terrible either. He gritted his way through 4 2/3 innings while surrendering three earned runs in the process.

Clevinger is also kind of the inverse of Civale in that his home ERA is impressive, but his peripherals are indicative of potential regression. He has a 2.96 ERA at home this season, but a 4.07 FIP and a 4.04 xFIP, meaning he has been on the right side of some good luck at home this season.

Clevinger is also backed by one of the best offenses in the league. So there is a good chance he will be the beneficiary of some offense if he falters. The Padres have the sixth-highest wRC+ in MLB over the past two weeks at home against RHP.

Guardians-Padres Pick

While there may be a slight lean in the Padres favor due to their reputation, the Guardians should not be this big an underdog in this particular matchup.

The Guards have a significant edge in the bullpen and while their offense doesn't have the star power of the Padres, they are still a tough lineup to navigate.

Both starters have been fairly inconsistent this season, but solely based on peripherals it would seem the Guardians' moneyline is a good value at +125. This game could go a lot of different ways, but if the Guardians can steal a game in this series, it's Tuesday night's game. Play as long as it's in plus money.

Pick: Guards ML +125

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