The Toronto Blue Jays host the Houston Astros on September 10, 2025. First pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SCHN.
Find my MLB betting preview and Astros vs Blue Jays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Astros vs Blue Jays Prediction
- Astros vs Blue Jays picks: Over 8.5 (-110 | Play to -115)
My Astros vs Blue Jays best bet is Over 8.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Astros vs Blue Jays Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -196 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
Astros vs Blue Jays Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Jason Alexander (HOU) | Stat | RHP Jose Berrios (TOR) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | W-L | 9-5 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.5 |
| 4.68 / 4.66 | ERA /xERA | 4.02 / 4.73 |
| 5.05 / 4.30 | FIP / xFIP | 4.51 / 4.39 |
| 1.39 | WHIP | 1.29 |
| 11.4% | K-BB% | 12.3% |
| 44.1% | GB% | 40.7% |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 89 |
| 102 | Location+ | 102 |
Tony Sartori’s Astros vs Blue Jays Preview
Houston Astros Betting Preview: Run Support for Alexander?
Jason Alexander has struggled in his return to Major League Baseball this season. Through 14 appearances on the mound, Alexander owns a 4.68 ERA and 1.39 WHIP.
His underlying metrics suggest more of the same moving forward. Entering this matchup, Alexander ranks in the bottom fifth of the league in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA), and hard-hit rate.
The good news for Alexander is that he should receive a solid amount of run support. This season, Houston ranks in the top half of the league in hits per game, batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS.
That success at the plate is likely to continue against José Berríos. Through 123 combined plate appearances against the right-hander, this current Astros roster boasts a .274 xBA, .516 xSLG, and .376 xwOBA.
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview: Numbers Don't Favor Berríos
Like Alexander, Berríos has struggled in 2025. Across 28 starts, Berríos owns a 4.02 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.
Also like Alexander, Berríos’ analytics suggest a poor end to the campaign is likely. The right-hander ranks in the bottom third of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, and barrel rate.
These struggles are likely to continue against Houston. Over the past 11 meetings, Berríos owns a 4.24 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.
Following the right-hander is a fade-worthy bullpen. Toronto’s biggest problem this season has been its relief corps, which ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA and wins above replacement (WAR).
Astros vs Blue Jays Prediction, Betting Analysis
Despite the poor pitching profile, the Blue Jays remain favored in this matchup due to their tremendous lineup. One of the best hitting teams in baseball, the Jays rank first in hits per game, batting average, and on-base percentage.
Power at the plate is also not a concern, as Toronto ranks in the top five in runs scored per game, slugging percentage, and OPS. Given the offensive firepower and shaky pitching matchup, there is little reason to believe this game won’t see at least nine total runs scored.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-110 | Play to -115)
Astros vs Blue Jays Betting Trends
