The Baltimore Orioles (13-18) host the Kansas City Royals (17-16) on May 3, 2025. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FOX.
The Orioles are -115 moneyline favorites, while the Royals are -105 moneyline underdogs. The total is 9 runs, slightly juiced to the under (+100 over/-120 under).
Find my MLB betting preview, Royals vs Orioles prediction, and expert F5 pick below.
- Royals vs Orioles Pick: Royals F5 ML (-110, BetMGM)
My Royals vs Orioles best bet is on the Royals first five innings ML. Check our live MLB odds page to find the best odds.
Royals vs Orioles Odds, Lines
Royals Odds | ||
---|---|---|
Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 9 -102o / -120u | -106 |
Orioles Odds | ||
---|---|---|
Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 9 -102o / -120u | -110 |
Royals vs Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers
LHP Kris Bubic (KCR) | Stat | RHP Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL) |
---|---|---|
2-2 | W-L | 3-1 |
1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.0 |
2.25 / 3.70 | ERA /xERA | 3.00 / 5.66 |
2.89 / 3.63 | FIP / xFIP | 5.12 / 4.44 |
1.14 | WHIP | 1.15 |
16.7% | K-BB% | 8.1% |
40.4% | GB% | 45.5% |
98 | Stuff+ | 90 |
101 | Location+ | 107 |
Charlie Wright’s Royals vs Orioles Betting Insights
I love Royals starting pitcher Kris Bubic.
He’s sitting at just over a strikeout per inning on the year, and his underlying plate discipline metrics suggest he’s an elite swing-and-miss guy. He’s posted a 14% swinging-strike rate and a 30.3% CSW rate through his first six starts.
Meanwhile, Baltimore’s been pitiful against left-handed pitching, ranking dead last among MLB lineups in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against the side.
While the Orioles should feature seven right-handed hitters in the lineup on Saturday, that’s no big deal for Bubic. He has reverse platoon splits, specifically with strikeouts, where he’s striking out 26% of righties compared to 21% of lefties.
Meanwhile, Baltimore starting pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano can’t keep getting away with this.
He takes a kitchen-sink approach, has a lousy fastball, and does not have swing-and-miss stuff. Everything except his 4% walk rate suggests a subpar pitcher.
He’s somehow posted a 3.00 ERA through his first six starts, but his 5.66 Expected ERA indicates negative regression is coming.
The main red flag for Sugano is his .250 BABIP. The league-average is closer ot .300, and the righty allows an above-average amount of hard-contact and barrels. He doesn’t profile as a hit suppressor, and once those batted balls find the gaps, Sugano’s BABIP should jump a good 50 points.
Kansas City’s offense has struggled. The Royals rank in the bottom two among MLB lineups in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
However, they’ve shown some life recently, ranking in the top 15 in OPS and wOBA against the side over the past two weeks. It’s not much, but it’s a start, and I like how much contact they make.
This is an excellent spot for Bubic to post a quality start while the Royals piece together a big day in the batter’s box.
Pick: Royals F5 ML (-110, BetMGM)