The Cleveland Guardians host the Kansas City Royals on September 11, 2025. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FOX.
The Guardians have won two out of three and will look to secure victory in this series with Gavin Williams on the hill against the Royals' Stephen Kolek.
Find my MLB betting preview and Royals vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Royals vs Guardians Prediction
- Royals vs Guardians pick: Under 7.5 (-105)
My Royals vs Guardians best bet is Under 7.5 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Royals vs Guardians Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +115 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -140 |
Royals vs Guardians Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Stephen Kolek (KC) | Stat | RHP Gavin Williams (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-5 | W-L | 10-5 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.1 |
| 3.88 / 4.48 | ERA / xERA | 3.17 / 4.46 |
| 4.01 / 4.34 | FIP / xFIP | 4.59 / 4.24 |
| 1.24 | WHIP | 1.29 |
| 9.3 | K-BB% | 11.0 |
| 50.5 | GB% | 44.4 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 100 | Location+ | 94 |
Royals vs Guardians Preview
The last two games of this series hit the under, and there might be a third straight in play.
The Royals offense has been dreadful all year, ranking 27th with a wRC+ of 89, and has managed to get worse in September with a 64 rating that places them at the 28th spot among all major league teams.
They will face Guardians starter Gavin Williams, who has been a steady performer all season long and seems to be finishing even stronger.
Williams has a 2.23 ERA in his past seven outings and is coming off a seven-inning, one-run start against the Rays.
Stephen Kolek will oppose him for Kansas City. The right-hander is an outstanding pitcher on the road this season, with a 2.41 ERA, and is also coming off a great outing, pitching seven complete innings, while allowing just six hits and two runs against the Twins.
This aligns with our Bet Labs recommendation for the under.
The system titled "Wind Whisper Unders" is built for MLB totals where weather and market signals align quietly but consistently toward the under.
It targets regular-season games from 2020 through 2025 where the closing total falls between seven and ten runs— a middle range that allows for variance but avoids extremes.
This strategy homes in on games with a specific weather profile: wind blowing from left, in from right, or straight in, with speeds between 3 and 15 miles per hour. Combined with moderate temperatures between 30 and 70, these environmental conditions help suppress deep fly balls without overly skewing the market.
Line movement also plays a role. The total must have dropped by up to 2.5 runs from open to close, signaling steady downward pressure from sharper bettors. Importantly, the public is not fully behind the under —support remains modest, falling between 1 and 55. This indicates market resistance and helps ensure the number isn’t over-adjusted.
By aligning downward line moves, cooling weather patterns, and under-the-radar betting splits, the system consistently identifies games where offense is subtly but significantly less likely to break out.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-105, Fanatics)
Royals vs Guardians Betting Trends
