The Minnesota Twins host the Kansas City Royals on August 10, 2025. First pitch from Target Field is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on Roku.
The Twins and Royals will kick off Sunday's MLB slate. The Twins snagged Game 1 of the series, while the Royals responded with a Game 2 win.
Find my MLB betting preview and Royals vs Twins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Royals vs Twins Prediction
- Royals vs Twins picks: Over 9.5 (-115)
My Royals vs Twins best bet is Over 9.5 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Royals vs Twins Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 9.5 -115o / -105u | -125 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 9.5 -115o / -105u | +105 |
Royals vs Twins Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Ryan Bergert (KC) | Stat | RHP Jose Ureña (MIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 0-0 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.2 |
| 2.83 / 4.29 | ERA / xERA | 5.24 / 7.70 |
| 4.15 / 4.89 | FIP / xFIP | 6.24 /5.31 |
| 1.11 | WHIP | 1.52 |
| 9.5 | K-BB% | 7.1 |
| 31.5 | GB% | 29.1 |
| 90 | Stuff+ | 89 |
| 102 | Location+ | 108 |
Sean Paul’s Royals vs Twins Preview
Kansas City Royals Betting Preview: Bergert Due for Regression
The Royals largely stood pat during the Trade Deadline. The only thing they did that plays a role in today’s game is trading backup catcher Freddy Fermin for Padres pitchers Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert.
Bergert has been a bright spot for both San Diego and Kansas City, boasting a 2.83 ERA in 41 ⅓ innings through 12 outings (8 starts). However, this could be the peak of Bergert’s year, as his xERA is 4.29 and his FIP is 4.15, indicating some potential regression.
The 25-year-old right-hander doesn’t flash exceptional stuff, posting a Stuff+ number of 90. He’s able to create deception by using a lower arm angle to make his 93.6 mph fastball look faster, and he loves throwing it up in the zone.
Here’s why I can’t see Bergert sustaining his current numbers. If he had enough innings to qualify, he’d rank top-ten in strand rate, in company with Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, Zach Wheeler, and Hunter Brown; that’s just not the caliber of pitcher Bergert is. Now, I’d be misleading people if I didn’t acknowledge the leader in strand rate being Reds hurler Zack Littell. He’s by far the worst pitcher in the top 15, and even he has a more established track record than Bergert.
The Royals' offense has improved gradually throughout the year. Since the All-Star break, they rank 13th in MLB with a 104 wRC+. They’ve also found their power, ranking seventh in home runs and 5th in isolated power in that stretch. Salvador Perez accounts for seven of the 29 home runs. He also has a team-best 154 wRC+.
Minnesota Twins Betting Preview: In Need of Bullpen Help
At the time of writing, the Twins have yet to name a Sunday starter. My best guess is Jose Urena or Pierson Ohl leading a bullpen game, after Travis Adams threw 43 pitches on Friday, likely making him not an option. Urena has been cut loose from multiple other big league clubs this year, and Ohl has a 9.35 ERA in three big league outings.
Behind the likely short start from either Urena or Ohl, they'll need a strong four or five innings from a bullpen that is almost entirely new from two weeks ago. The only two arms I have any trust in are Justin Topa and Cole Sands, the two holdovers from the prior Twins pen.
The Twins didn't lose many offensive weapons at the deadline. They only moved two players, one of whom is Carlos Correa, who struggled all year, and the other is Harrison Bader, who opened the door for Austin Martin to play.
They've parlayed retaining the core of their lineup into having a 113 wRC+, the seventh-best in MLB since the All-Star break.
Minnesota will force Bergert to throw strikes, or it'll gladly take free passes. Over the Twins' last 20 games, they sport the second-best walk rate in baseball. That'll be huge with Bergert's inconsistency staying in the zone.
The trio of Matt Wallner, Ryan Jeffers, and Kody Clemens has carried the Twins of late. Wallner cracked three homers in his last eight games, while Jeffers and Clemens are hitting over .310 in that span.
The over is 6-2 in the eight games since the Twins dealt their entire bullpen. It's been a mix of having a really good offense and one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball, that's led to high-scoring games.
Royals vs Twins Prediction, Betting Analysis
The over is 6-2 in the eight games since the Twins dealt their entire bullpen. It's been a mix of having a really good offense and one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball, that's led to high-scoring games.
Don't let yesterday's low-scoring game fool you; this should be a very high-scoring contest. Whichever group of hurlers the Twins trot out won't have an easy time holding down this hot Royals offense, while Bergert will see the regression come to a head on Sunday.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-115, BetMGM)
Moneyline
I'm making no play on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm also making no play on the spread.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I like the over.
