KBO Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds (Tuesday, June 16): Can Jokisch, Heroes Get Back to Winning Ways vs. Giants?
Han Myung-Gu/Getty Images. Pictured: Shin Bon-Ki
zThe Hanwha Eagles finally snapped their losing streak on Sunday, with a come-from-behind, walk-off win to avoid sole possession of the longest losing streak in KBO history — ending their run of futility at 18 games:
What a way to end an 18 game losing streak!
The Hanwha Eagles wins on a walk off to snap the skid!pic.twitter.com/kJANI7WCI2
— PointsBet Sportsbook (@PointsBetUSA) June 14, 2020
Not only did the Eagles win the suspended game (after re-opening as +350 live underdogs in the betting market down 4-3 in the second inning), they also beat the Doosan Bears again just a few hours later for good measure.
After the mini sweep, the Bears (21-14) are back to third place in the KBO, while the LG Twins (22-13) have moved back into second place behind the NC Dinos (26-9), who are four games clear of the pack.
Since MLB still isn’t back yet, we’ll continue to get groovy with foreign baseball leagues, including the KBO, Taiwan’s CPBL and likely Japan’s NPB, which starts on Friday:
I wish the owners loved baseball as much as this man loves ringing people up. 💔💕 pic.twitter.com/LRgyJAbrYi
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 14, 2020
- KBO Year to Date: 54-76 (-15.92 Units)
- CPBL Year to Date: 34-28 (+8.04 Units)
KBO Odds, Picks, Predictions & Betting Model
Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes
- Giants moneyline: +200
- Heroes moneyline: -265
- Over/under: 10
- Time: 5:30 a.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- BET NOW
Probable Pitchers: Lotte Giants (Kyung-eun Noh) vs. Kiwoom Heroes (Eric Jokisch)
The Kiwoom Heroes (20-16) play host to the Lotte Giants (18-17) for a three-game series beginning on Tuesday and will hope to avenge a series loss in Busan from May 22-24.
The Giants have slightly overachieved to this point in the season, with a -12 run differential and a 16-18 Pythagorean record. In contrast, the Heroes have underachieved by one win, with a 21-15 Pythagorean record and the third-best run differential (+35) in the KBO.
Their lone win against the Giants came on May 23, behind a solid effort from Eric Jokisch (5-1, 1.49 ERA) who recently suffered his first loss against the Samsung Lions. And though they took two out of three games against the NC Dinos, the Heroes will also look to get back in the win column after a 9-5 loss on Sunday.
Jokisch is off to as hot of a start (2.85 FIP) as anyone this year, with excellent command over his sinker/slider/changeup arsenal while mixing in the occasional slow curveball.
FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck.
wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.
The slider is Jokisch’s signature offering:
Eric Jokish, Fastball (called strike) & Breaking Ball (swinging K), Overlay/synced at release pic.twitter.com/TuT1CBjuUk
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 29, 2020
The southpaw also uses his pitch mix to generate weak contact, which led to a .288 BABIP in 2019, and a .276 BABIP thus far in 2020 (.312 league average) with a 15% hard-hit rate that is tied for sixth amongst starters.
Kyung-eun Noh (4.70 FIP), will make his seventh start for the Giants after skipping the 2019 season.
The veteran has a career 5.16 ERA in the KBO and pitched to a 4.96 FIP over 33 appearances (19 starts)for the Giants in 2018. He offers big secondary stuff, including a filthy changeup and a classic 12-to-6 curveball, and will even bust out a rare knuckleball, too:
Noh Kyung-eun of the Lotte Giants 64 mph knuckleball + grip. pic.twitter.com/MSzkY2GhAd
— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) June 10, 2020
I project the Heroes as 65.2% favorites for Tuesday, and I would bet the Heroes to -160 (implied 61.5%), which is a 3.7% edge compared to my projection.
Conversely, I would look to bet the Giants at +225 (implied 30.8%) or better, which is a 4% edge compared to my projection (34.8%). Use our betting calculator to find your edge if you have different odds.
I project the total at 9.48 runs and would bet Under 10.5 (-105) or Under 11 (-115) at a 3.9% edge.
See all of Tuesday’s KBO and CPBL projections below, and check back later today for my picks on the Giants-Heroes game, and Tuesday’s other KBO and CPBL games.
Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes Picks
- Lotte Giants +230 (1 unit)
Full KBO Betting Card for June 16
- KIA Tigers +133 (1 unit)
- KIA Tigers, Team Total Over 3.5 (-125, 0.5 units)
- KT Wiz +143 (1 unit)
- KT Wiz, Team Total Over 4.5 (-108, 0.5 units)
- Lotte Giants +230 (1 unit)
- Samsung Lions Team Total, Over 3.5 (-125, 0.5 units)
KBO Year to Date: 54-76 (-15.92 Units)
Full CPBL Betting Card for June 16
- Fubon Guardians +100 (1 unit)
- Guardians / Brothers, Over 10.5 (-111, 0.5 units)
CPBL Year to Date: 34-28 (+8.04 Units)
Zerillo’s Full KBO + CPBL Model, June 16
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game moneylines, over/unders, and team totals. A sample of one of the sheets is below: