The Atlanta Braves host the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 3, 2025. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FOX.
While the Braves may be struggling this season at the plate, some recent trends and a solid showing against four-seamers may push this game well over the total.
Find my MLB betting preview and Dodgers vs Braves prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
My Dodgers vs Braves Prediction
- Dodgers vs Braves Pick: Over 8.5 (-110, BetMGM | Play to -125)
My Dodgers vs Braves best bet is on the Over. Check our live MLB odds page to find the best odds.
Dodgers vs Braves Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
Dodgers vs Braves Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Roki Sasaki (LAD) | Stat | RHP Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 1-2 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 3.55/5.51 | ERA /xERA | 2.87/3.68 |
| 5.27/5.24 | FIP / xFIP | 3.24/3.03 |
| 1.42 | WHIP | 0.98 |
| 1.1% | K-BB% | 5.5% |
| 42.3% | GB% | 50% |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 109 |
| 89 | Location+ | 109 |
Kenny Ducey’s Dodgers vs Braves Preview
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Tough Situation for Sasaki
Roki Sasaki seems to have his work cut out for him at the Major League level.
As strikeouts have become hard to find against better competition, the Japanese import has dealt with some gruesome walk issues as he nibbles around the edges. He enters this start with a 16.4% walk rate, which would make Edward Cabrera look like Greg Maddux.
Sasaki has now walked two or more batters in each of his past starts, and he's allowed a home run in three straight.
While missing bats has been tough, and finding the strike zone has been trying, Sasaki has thrown an utterly hittable fastball, hurting his secondary pitches. Opponents are putting up a solid .319 Expected Batting Average on the Sasaki fastball next to a .632 Expected Slugging, which has worked in chorus with the walks to bump his Expected ERA up to 5.51.
The four-seamer may be coming in with plenty of velocity, but it lacks rise and arm-side run, making it far less competitive at this level.
With an abundance of contact coming against Sasaki and a relatively low ground-ball rate, he's in immediate danger just about every time he steps to the mound.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview: An Improved Braves Offense
Spencer Schwellenbach has matched Sasaki in the velocity department, and his four-seamer has been just as hittable with a .360 xBA and .486 xSLG through six starts.
The difference is that Schwellenbach has kept most of his contact on the ground and has missed a ton of bats.
The right-hander ranks in the 90th percentile among MLB starters in chase rate, along with a positive 27.6% whiff rate and spicy 4% walk rate, which has mitigated much of the risk brought on by the numbers against his four-seamer.
He's likely due for a bit of regression on contact, but you'd think his strikeout rate would rise back to the 25% mark we saw a season ago with the whiff rates he's sporting on the fastball, slider, and splitter.
We'll compare both offenses briefly, but the one thing to watch here is this Braves order.
It's jumped to 10th among MLB lineups in wRC+ over the past two weeks as the team has begun to really cut down on the strikeouts at an incredibly low 16.9% clip — and next to a .154 Isolated Power, it's been tough to crack.
Dodgers vs Braves Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Braves' bats are heating up, and now they should be in prime position for another breakout on Saturday against the lackluster Sasaki fastball. Against four-seamers from righties this season, Atlanta ranks among the top 10 MLB lineups in xBA and hard-hit rate.
While it's put forth a middling whiff rate, things have improved recently, and this team has remained pretty patient with a good deal of walks, which should put the Dodgers' rookie on notice.
On the flip side, Los Angeles has performed a bit worse against four-seamers from right-handers, and its hard-hit rate is nowhere close to what we've seen out of Atlanta. It's rocking an insane .212 ISO in the last two weeks with great strikeout and walk numbers, however, and it leads the league in xwOBA over that span.
The Dodgers have these solid numbers and lead the league in OPS versus ground-ball arms, a split in which they fared incredibly well a year ago.
I see plenty of issues mounting for both arms and a very favorable spot for both offenses, despite the Braves' overall struggles this season.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Dodgers vs Braves Betting Trends
Dodgers vs Braves starts at 7:15 p.m. EDT on Saturday, live from Truist Park. The game will be broadcast on FOX.
