The New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers wrap up their NLCS rematch on Sunday Night Baseball on May 25, 2025. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
This week's edition of Sunday Night Baseball will be a good one, as Landon Knack (6.17 ERA, 23 1/3 IP) will face off against Kodai Senga (1.43 ERA, 50 1/3 IP) when the Dodgers and Mets play the rubber match of a three-game set.
Find my Dodgers vs Mets prediction and my Sunday Night Baseball preview below.
My Dodgers vs Mets Prediction
- Dodgers vs Mets pick: F5 Over 5 Runs -105 (bet365 & BetMGM, Play to -110)
My Dodgers vs Mets best bet is the First Five Innings Over 5 Runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Dodgers vs Mets Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +159 | 8.5 -118 / -102 | -101 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -181 | 8.5 -118 / -102 | -119 |
Dodgers vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Landon Knack (LAD) | Stat | RHP Kodai Senga (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 4-3 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.3 |
| 6.17/5.23 | ERA /xERA | 1.43/3.18 |
| 5.18/4.00 | FIP / xFIP | 2.84/4.13 |
| 1.54 | WHIP | 1.19 |
| 12.4% | K-BB% | 12.3% |
| 37.5% | GB% | 46.6% |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 101 | Location+ | 94 |
Nick Martin’s Dodgers vs Mets Preview
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview
It will be strength on strength in this matchup as arguably the best lineup in baseball takes on Senga, who is currently priced as the ninth favorite to win the NL Cy Young.
The Dodgers currently have zero position players on the IL and have hit to a wRC+ of 124 this season. They rank first in expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, and xwOBA. They hold a second-ranked wRC+ of 125 versus right-handed pitching, rank second in BB/K ratio versus righties, and hold the second-lowest soft contact rate.
It's been an ugly start to the year for Knack, who has had only one effective outing among his five appearances this season. He holds an xERA of 5.23 and an xFIP of 4.00. He holds a K-BB% of just 12.4, which is particularly concerning given that he has been hard-hit 54.2% of the time this season.
Knack holds a Stuff+ rating of 97 and a Pitching+ rating of 95. He's relied heavily upon his four-seamer, which does not grade out overly well, and has been highly ineffective.
Batters have slugged .587 and hold a .570 xSLG versus his four-seam fastball, which he's used 48.5% of the time this season.
New York Mets Betting Preview
The Mets will get their first look at Knack this year after torching the young starter for five earned runs across two innings in Game 2 of the NLCS.
They have been highly productive at Citi Field this season with a wRC+ of 118; they hold a wRC+ of 108 versus right-handed pitchers.
The Mets lineup has offered strong plate discipline once again this season and features a number of batters capable of grinding out tough ABs. They rank first in BB/K ratio, have swung at just 26.1% of pitches out of the zone, and have whiffed on 23.4% of pitches.
Senga has put himself in the Cy Young conversation with a 1.43 ERA in his first 50 1/3 innings of work, but oddsmakers still price him at +2800, which likely comes down to two factors.
He's pitched far fewer innings than other NL contenders currently and has a less convincing underlying profile than pitchers such as Paul Skenes and Zack Wheeler.
Senga holds a 3.18 xERA and 4.13 xFIP this season, and his underlying numbers have been worse of late.
In his last four starts, Senga has been hard-hit 48% of the time, allowed an expected batting average of .238, and an xFIP of 4.31. He holds a Pitching+ rating of 94 in those matchups.
Dodgers vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Dodgers' high-powered offense could be poised to do some damage off Senga, who finally allowed more than two earned runs in his last outing, and appears to be coming down to earth after a spectacular start to the campaign. He's been able to dominate with his forkball in key moments, but batters have been adjusting to his sequencing more effectively of late.
Knack appears to be a well-below-average starter this season, ranking at the bottom of the league in terms of hard-hit rate and barrel rate. He has the potential to pitch to better results moving forward, but this still looks to be another start with blow-up potential as he takes on a scrappy Mets side that will likely see his fastball-changeup combo effectively.
At -110 or better, there looks to be value in backing these high-powered lineups to generate over five runs in the first five innings (F5) versus a pair of starters that do not look entirely convincing ahead of this matchup.
Pick: First 5 Innings Over 5 -105 (bet365; BetMGM)
Moneyline
The prices on moneylines look fair to me with the Dodgers priced as slight underdogs.
Run Line (Spread)
There is no bet I will be making on the run line in this matchup.
Over/Under
As outlined, backing the first five innings to go over 5 runs is my favorite play from this game, so obviously I would be leaning with over 8.5 runs in terms of the game total.
The Mets' quality bullpen is in great shape after David Peterson's performance on Saturday though, and I see more value targeting the idea that Senga and Knack are likely to have shaky outings in the early innings.
