Tuesday MLB Odds, Preview, Prediction for Mariners vs. Athletics: Seattle Has Value as Underdog (August 24)
Stephen Brashear/Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Flexen.
- The Mariners and Athletics finish up a brief two-game series on Tuesday afternoon.
- Chris Flexen has been a surprising boost to the Seattle rotation, but he faces a resurgent Oakland lineup.
- Jeff Hicks breaks down the matchup and delivers his pick below.
Mariners vs. Athletics Odds
|Time||3:37 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Monday via DraftKings.|
The Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics wrap up a quick two-game series Tuesday afternoon. Coming into this series, the Athletics hold a three-game lead over the Mariners for the second American League wild-card spot.
The Mariners entered this season, which started on Monday, 6-4 against the Athletics this season and have won three out of four series.
The starting pitchers bring a lot of intrigue to this matchup and the offenses will have their work cut out for them.
Chris Flexen has transformed from a failed Mets starter to key cog in the Mariners pitching rotation after a stint overseas. Not only has he been nails pitching in Seattle but the success is traveling with him on the road.
Flexen has logged quality starts in three of his past four road outings with a start against the Yankees being his only blemish (five innings, three runs). He had one quality road start in the first three months of the season.
The Mariners offense is okay on the road but capitalizes with power. Their home run-to-fly ball ratio is 12th best in baseball and they have one of the lowest ground ball-to-fly ball ratios away from home. That plus a respectable .280 BABIP balances their fifth-highest soft-hit percentage.
What also helps the Mariners offense is their ability to hit left-handed pitching on the road. Only 10 teams have a road wRC+ of 100 or greater against lefties. Seattle’s is 96, tied for 13th. The Mariners’ strikeout percentage drops 1.2% against southpaws.
Strikeouts may not matter for Oakland starter Cole Irvin considering he enters Tuesday with a 6.48 strikeouts per nine innings mark. What gets Irvin in trouble is an elevated hit rate and 64% fly ball percentage. The Mariners are top 10 in road slugging percentage against southpaws.
Irvin has excelled with a fastball/changeup combination that came together this season when he turned his fastball from a negative to a positive pitch according to FanGraphs Pitch Values.
Irvin has been consistent between home and road starts with his 3.72 home mark 0.31 runs higher than on the road. He has allowed four more home runs at home in only four more innings.
The acquisition of Starling Marte and second-half rebound of Matt Chapman have helped boost the A’s offense that has consistently been top 10 at home according to wRC+. Oakland has had slugging issues like Seattle but are at least league average in Medium and hard-hit percentages in a cavernous home park.
Oakland also has one of the best GB/FB ratios at home against right-handed pitching. Good contact with the ball just as likely to be in the air as on the ground matters.
With that number gone and the Mariners a .500 team against teams at .500 or better, getting them on the moneyline at a better number than it opened is the way to go. The Athletics are 10 games under against .500-plus teams and just lost two of three to the Giants. Seattle also has a better record against A.L. West teams like the A’s as I mentioned at the beginning.
This is an excellent game for bettors and baseball fans to enjoy on a Tuesday afternoon.
Pick: Mariners ML (+130, bet to even money and take under 9 runs if it comes back)