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Mets vs. Cubs MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back New York to Extend Winning Streak (Sunday, July 17)

Mets vs. Cubs MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back New York to Extend Winning Streak (Sunday, July 17) article feature image
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Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Pete Alonso.

Mets vs. Cubs Odds

Mets Odds -140
Cubs Odds +120
Over/Under 8
Time 2:20 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Mets beat the Cubs on Saturday in a one-run extra-inning affair at Wrigley Field. It was the fourth consecutive win for the Mets and gave them a narrow two-and-a-half game lead on the Atlanta Braves in the National League East.

On the other hand, it was the Cubs’ ninth consecutive loss. Chicago is now 17-32 at home this season, and at 34-57 overall, the Cubs are tied with the Reds in last place, 15.5 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central.

The Mets are realizing their postseason aspirations while the Cubs’ dreams have already been dashed. Who will ultimately get the job done and take home the victory this afternoon?

Mets Lefties Should Thrive Against Sampson

The Mets have one of the best offensive teams in all of baseball and enter play Sunday averaging 4.67 runs per game on the road this season, which is eighth in all of baseball.

New York will face Adrian Sampson, who has a 3.33 ERA in 27 innings and four starts this season. While Sampson’s ERA is nice, it’s perhaps a little better than he deserves as he’s sporting a 4.33 xFIP, a full run higher. Sampson has a 20% K%, 4% BB%, and 42% Ground Ball Rate.

While he might seem like a fairly solid pitcher based on those numbers, he has a clear weakness against left-handed batters. Against lefties, Sampson has just a 14% K%. The Mets’ lineup is heavily left-handed, and I project New York to have seven left-handed hitters in their lineup as they stack up the lefties against Sampson, which should make life difficult for him this afternoon.


Can the Cubs’ Righties Step Up Against Peterson?

The Cubs are 16th in all of baseball averaging 4.31 runs per game at home this season. Chicago will face David Peterson, who is a solid pitcher and gives the Mets the clear advantage in this game. Peterson has a 3.85 xFIP, 27% K%, 10% BB%, and 52% Ground Ball Rate. He’s left-handed but allows just a .102 ISO to right-handed batters.

The Cubs have a lot of right-handed hitters with power as Wilson Contreras, Patrick Wisdom, and Seiya Suzuki each have ISOs above .200 against left-handed pitching. David Bote also has an ISO above .200 against left-handed pitching this season in a limited number of at-bats, and if we lower the threshold to .160, Nico Hoerner, Frank Schwindel, Christopher Morel and Ian Happ join the club.

Limiting the Cubs’ right-handed power hitting should go a long way toward bringing this one home for Peterson and the Mets.

Mets-Cubs Pick

I like the Mets here. Peterson is a solid pitcher who should handle the Cubs’ middling offense at home while Sampson has been lucky to out-pitch his xFIP so far this year and has a weakness against left-handed batters that the Mets should exploit.

Pick: Mets ML -140 (PointsBet)

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