The New York Mets host the Miami Marlins on August 28, 2025. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SNY.
The Mets will look to avoid a letdown Thursday while playing as massive favorites after completing a critical three-game sweep over the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday evening. Clay Holmes (3.60 ERA, 137 and 1/3 IP) will face off against Adam Mazur (6.35 ERA, 5 and 2/3 IP).
Find my MLB betting preview and Marlins vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Marlins vs Mets Prediction
- Marlins vs Mets pick: Mets -1.5 (-125, play to -130)
My Marlins vs Mets best bet is on the Mets to cover the run line . Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Marlins vs Mets Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +103 | 9 -101o / -120u | +208 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -125 | 9 -101o / -120u | -261 |
Marlins vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Adam Mazur (MIA) | Stat | RHP Clay Holmes (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 69-60 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 11-6 |
| 6.35/6.37 | ERA /xERA | 3.60/4.37 |
| 5.77/5.64 | FIP / xFIP | 4.09/4.17 |
| 1.59 | WHIP | 1.6 |
| 3.7% | K-BB% | 9.2% |
| 44.4% | GB% | 55.5% |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 103 | Location+ | 100 |
Nick Martin’s Marlins vs Mets Preview
Miami Marlins Betting Preview: Searching for Answers on the Mound
After a surprisingly excellent run of play from mid-June through July, the Marlins have seemingly come back down to earth with a record of 10-16 in the month of August. They are 4-8 in 12 games since Kyle Stowers went on the IL, and have hit to an OPS of just .643 with their top batter out of the lineup.
In the month of August the Marlins rank 19th in wRC+ and rank 20th in weighted on-base average. Since the All-Star break, Miami has offered above-average production versus righties, with a wRC+ of 106 and a strong 0.43 BB/K ratio.
While the Marlins' bats have cooled off to some extent, in part due to Stowers' absence, their pitching has been the greater concern recently, as their staff holds an ERA of 5.50 since the start of August. That concern could continue in Thursday's matchup, as Mazur is not a very formidable starter, while their bullpen has allowed an ERA of 5.50 since August 1st.
Mazur pitched to an ERA of 7.49 in 33 and 2/3 innings of work last season with the San Diego Padres and an xFIP of 6.20. In 107 and 1/3 innings in Triple-A this season, he's pitched to an ERA of 4.36 and a FIP of 5.13. In his only MLB start this season, he allowed four earned runs across five and two-thirds innings and held a Stuff+ rating of 92.
New York Mets Betting Preview: Riding Momentum Into Crucial Series
After a red-hot start to the season, Holmes has been much less dominant of late, pitching to an ERA of 4.50 in seven starts since the All-Star break. During those seven outings, he holds a FIP of 3.56 and strong pitch metrics, which include a Stuff+ of 105 and a Pitching+ of 109. He's been hard-hit only 32.1% of the time during that span but suffered from a .333 BABIP.
Nolan McLean's dominant eight-inning outing on Thursday provided the Mets bullpen with a good opportunity to recover, as Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea combined for only eight and two-thirds innings in the games previous to McLean's gem. The Mets bullpen has pitched to an ERA of 4.78 over the last 30 days and an ERA of 3.94 this season.
The Mets will provide a tough matchup for Mazur to get his footing at the MLB level, as since August 1st they rank first in MLB with an OPS of .849 and a wRC+ of 139. They also hold the second lowest soft contact rate in that span, the second highest line-drive rate, and rank fifth in BB/K ratio.
Since August 1st the Mets have also been the best team in baseball versus right-handed pitching, with a wRC+ of 143 and an OPS of .863.
They are without one important piece, as Francisco Alvarez remains on the IL, and Alvarez had been in excellent form prior to his injury with an OPS of 1.053 since the All-Star break.
Marlins vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Mets have made a late push to steal the division title from the Phillies and will need to win at least three of four from this series versus the Marlins to have a realistic chance at closing the four-game gap in the remaining 29 games.
New York has a great opportunity to keep the momentum going and earn an important victory in this matchup, as Mazur has struggled mightily at the MLB level over the last two seasons and offered fairly average results in Triple-A. Miami's relief staff has also been in very shaky form recently, and the Mets' red-hot lineup seems likely to reach its high implied total of 5.3 in this matchup.
Holmes still appears to be a better-than-average starter and should be able to turn in a respectable outing versus a Marlins side that has been scuffling at the plate since Stowers' injury.
At -125 there looks to be value backing the Mets to cover the run-line in this matchup, and it also appears to be a good spot to sprinkle a smaller bet on the Mets winning by a significant margin at long prices.
Pick: Mets -1.5 (-125, Fanatics; play to -130)
Moneyline
Laying -261 is certainly not overly appealing for recreational bettors, but the Mets do appear to have a better chance of winning than the 72% implied probability that is suggested by that price.
Run Line (Spread)
As outlined, backing the Mets to cover the run line is my favorite play from this matchup.
Over/Under
A total of 9 seems fair for this matchup at Citi Field.
Marlins vs Mets Betting Trends
