The Washington Nationals host the Miami Marlins on September 1, 2025. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSFL.
Find my MLB betting preview and Marlins vs Nationals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Marlins vs Nationals Prediction
- Marlins vs Nationals pick: Marlins ML
My Marlins vs Nationals best bet is on Miami to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Marlins vs Nationals Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -182 | 9 -119o / -102u | +102 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +149 | 9 -119o / -102u | -123 |
Marlins vs Nationals Projected Starting Pitchers
| TBD (MIA) | Stat | LHP Andrew Alvarez (WSH – MLB debut) |
|---|---|---|
| — | W-L | — |
| — | fWAR (FanGraphs) | — |
| — | ERA /xERA | — |
| — | FIP / xFIP | — |
| — | WHIP | — |
| — | K-BB% | — |
| — | GB% | — |
| — | Stuff+ | — |
| — | Location+ | — |
Sean Paul’s Marlins vs Nationals Preview
Washington Nationals Betting Preview: Rookie Debut on the Mound
The Nationals continue building for the future and part of that is seeing what minor-league arms have. One of them is Andrew Alvarez, who the Nationals will hand the ball to in Monday's series opener.
Alvarez, a 26-year-old left-hander, posted a 4.10 ERA in 25 outings with AAA Rochester. He isn't a prospect ranked inside the Nationals' top 30, so this isn't a can't-miss debut. He doesn't have great strikeout stuff, tallying 8.34 K/9 in the minors with a 3.80 BB/9. On the plus side, Alvarez posted just a 0.95 HR/9. We'll see if the gap between AAA and the MLB adds to his home run numbers, but that would be huge for him to limit the homers.
Washington has shown occasional flashes of offensive brilliance, but it has struggled lately. In August, the Nationals rank 22nd in MLB with a 91 wRC+, while hitting the second-fewest homers and striking out 24% of the time.
One of the main reasons for the Nationals' power outage is James Wood coming back to earth. Wood has played 37 games in the second half and has an 82 wRC+ in 160 plate appearances. He also has just two homers and a 37.5% strikeout rate.
Without Wood and CJ Abrams performing like stars, the Nationals' offense is pretty mediocre. I don't have much hope in Washington putting things together in the season's final month.
Miami Marlins Betting Preview: Young Bats Stepping Up
At the time of writing, the Marlins haven't announced a starter to replace Ryan Gusto, who hit the injured list due to a shoulder issue. Five days ago, the Marlins' AAA affiliate, the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, held a bullpen game. George Soriano started the bullpen game, and he could be a factor in Miami's pitching plans for Monday.
Either way, I would much prefer a Marlins bullpen game to the Nationals having a rookie starter with subpar numbers in the minors.
Miami is a much better offensive team than the Nationals, ranking 17th in August with a 99 wRC+. Plus, their best player, Kyle Stowers, is on the injured list. In Stowers' absence, rookies Jakob Marsee, Troy Johnston, and Javier Sanoja have each posted a wRC+ better than 120. Marsee in particular has stood out, posting a 184 wRC+ in his last 29 games.
Moreover, the Marlins' bat-to-ball skills are a huge boost for a team that doesn't have a ton of talent. They have a 20% strikeout rate this month and an 8.8% walk rate. The trio of Xavier Edwards, Javier Sanoja, and Otto Lopez each strike out fewer than 15% of the time and will look to pose a tough at-bat versus the Nationals' rookie pitcher.
Marlins vs Nationals Prediction, Betting Analysis
For one, this pitching matchup is a total toss-up. We know literally nothing about Alvarez's ability at the MLB level, but a few things make me doubt he'll translate well to the bigs.
Odds are if Alvarez were actually viewed as an MLB starter, he'd be a top-30 prospect and probably would have made his debut before age 26. That's not to say he can't churn out a strong start, but I'd be against it.
Pick: Marlins ML (+102, DraftKings)
Moneyline
I like the Marlins
Run Line (Spread)
No play
Over/Under
No play
Marlins vs Nationals Betting Trends
