The Washington Nationals host the Miami Marlins on September 3, 2025. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSFL.
Find my MLB betting preview and Marlins vs Nationals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Marlins vs Nationals Prediction
- Marlins vs Nationals pick: Marlins ML
My Marlins vs Nationals best bet is on Miami to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Marlins vs Nationals Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 9 -110o / -110u | -140 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -145 | 9 -110o / -110u | +115 |
Marlins vs Nationals Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Eury Perez (MIA) | Stat | LHP Mitchell Parker (WSN) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-4 | W-L | 7-15 |
| 1.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 4.04/3.19 | ERA /xERA | 5.94/5.89 |
| 4.07/4.45 | FIP / xFIP | 5.02/5.11 |
| 1.04 | WHIP | 1.47 |
| 15.0% | K-BB% | 6.5% |
| 33.2% | GB% | 35.9% |
| 133 | Stuff+ | 83 |
| 86 | Location+ | 104 |
Sean Paul’s Marlins vs Nationals Preview
Miami Marlins Betting Preview: Perez Bounce-Back Spot
I got burned by the Marlins in the series opener. I didn’t foresee them scoring zero runs against a pitcher in his debut and the corpse that is the Washington Nationals bullpen.
Alas, we’re back to backing the Marlins once again, as they try to avoid the dreaded road sweep.
Eury Perez will look to shake off the worst start of his big league career. He went just ⅔ of an inning with five earned runs versus the Mets.
That hasn’t been the story of Perez’s season, though. The rough outing boosted Perez’s ERA to 4.04, but it was 3.44 before the Mets crushed him. I feel good about Perez turning things around, as his xERA is a 3.19 and his FIP is a 4.07. Perez ranks in the 93rd percentile in xERA and 94th in xBA, holding teams to an expected .204 average.
The key to the tall flame-thrower is attacking the zone. He can get out of control with walks, as he ranks in the 28th percentile in walk rate. If he stays in the zone, he's one of the toughest pitchers to hit.
The Marlins' bats have tailed off over their last 18 games, ranking 25th with an 86 wRC+. Losing Kyle Stowers didn't appear detrimental at the time, as Miami continued to hit well. But the Marlins miss his power, as they rank in the bottom five in both home runs and ISO since August 15th.
They still have plenty of contact hitters, like Xavier Edwards, Jakob Marsee, and Javier Sanoja. I touched on Parker's home-run woes, so it would be huge if Eric Wagaman or Agustin Ramirez — the two best power bats in Miami's lineup can show off that power.
Washington Nationals Betting Preview: Parker's Struggles Continue
There might not be a more fadeable pitcher than Mitchell Parker. The Nationals southpaw has a 5.94 ERA and posted a 10.21 ERA through six outings in August. Parker allowed 3+ runs in each outing and 4+ in five of the six. Not to mention, he allowed at least one homer in each start.
I can’t comfortably back Parker in any capacity. His underlying numbers don’t indicate that he’s been lucky, posting a 5.88 xERA and a 5.02 FIP. Plus, Parker ranks in the 4th percentile in xERA, 2nd in xBA, and 1st in both hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.
Parker doesn’t strike hitters out either, so the average exit velocity comes into play often.
Washington tends to struggle with strikeout pitchers, which is what Perez is. The Nationals rank 27th in MLB with an 81 wRC+ since August 15th and have a nightmarish 27.7% strikeout rate. Odds are, it'll be a lot harder to crack Perez than it was against Adam Mazur.
In that span, they have 10 homers (the least in MLB), with a .119 ISO and a mediocre 7.8% walk rate. I don't see the path for the Nationals putting runs together against Perez if it doesn't come via the walk.
Marlins vs Nationals Prediction, Betting Analysis
You might look at the line and say, Really? Should the Marlins be -140? And I'd put the line in the -150 range.
Perez is a potential ace-type pitcher, coming at a bit of a discount off an awful outing. I don't see any reason to back Parker. The Nationals lost all six of their outings in August. I don't see that changing here.
Pick: Marlins ML (-140, Fanatics; Play to -150)
Moneyline
I like the Marlins here
Run Line (Spread)
No play
Over/Under
No play
Marlins vs Nationals Betting Trends
