MLB Best Bets: Expert Picks & Predictions for Monday, April 8
Our MLB Best Bets for Monday include four picks among Major League Baseball's 13-game slate for April 8.
Today's MLB picks contain three moneyline bets and one player prop prediction spanning three different matchups — Brewers vs. Reds, Rays vs. Angels, and Marlins vs. Yankees.
Read below for our MLB best bets and expert picks for Monday, April 8.
MLB Best Bets for Monday, April 8
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 6:05 p.m. | ||
| 6:05 p.m.. | ||
| 6:40 p.m. | ||
| 9:38 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Marlins vs. Yankees
By Tony Sartori
This is just one of those plays where I want to buy low on Miami. Are the Marlins any good?
Maybe not after their 1-9 start in 2024, but I don't see how there is any value in backing New York at this big of a price with left-hander Nestor Cortes taking the mound. Cortes has gotten off to a terrible start this season, posting a 0-1 record with a 6.30 ERA and 1.70 WHIP through his first two starts.
His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely as he ranks in the 37th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and Hard-Hit%. These struggles are likely to continue against Miami, a team he allowed seven earned runs against in their lone career meeting.
Again, the Marlins are not very good, but that is why we are catching this generous price of +140. Speaking of that line, +140 at Caesars is a particularly good price considering that it is four-to-10 cents longer than the rest of the market at the time of writing.
Pick: Marlins ML (+130)
Marlins vs. Yankees
By Cody Goggin
Nestor Cortes’ strikeout total for his matchup tonight is 6.5 and there appears to be strong value on the under to me.
This line has been set at 4.5 in each of the first two games of the season. In his first start he went over this total by fanning five batters against Houston while only striking out two against Arizona.
Looking at just these results, it’s a bit perplexing why this line is set at 6.5, albeit at heavy minus odds.
It’s not just the results from this season that bring questions to this number. Cortes went over 6.5 strikeouts four out of 12 starts last year.
Last season Cortes had a Stuff+ rating of 104, which was around average. This season his figure is only 92, which shows that he hasn’t exactly had the best stuff to start the year.
The Marlins rank 19th in strikeout rate this season. I believe that this line for Cortes is inflated due to the amount that the Marlins swing and miss. They rank 6th in whiff% this season and worst in chase rate, which has led to these increased strikeouts.
Cortes likely isn’t the pitcher to take advantage of this as he throws his pitches mostly in the strike zone. Since the start of last season, out of 234 qualifying pitchers, Cortes ranks 38th in Zone%.
From this subset of pitchers, Cortes ranks eighth in In Zone Contact%, meaning not only is he often around the strike zone, but contact is made on almost all of these (91.2%) that are swung at.
Cortes’ game is based more on allowing weak contact than striking out batters. While this Marlins’ matchup looks like it could be promising for him on the surface, it appears to me that Miami will have ample opportunities to put balls in play.
I project Cortes for an average of 4.6 strikeouts today so I like taking the under here even at these current odds.
Pick: Nestor Cortes Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-167)
Brewers vs. Reds
By John Feltman
The Brewers are rolling into Cincinnati after an impressive series against the Seattle Mariners. Tonight, they send left-hander Aaron Ashby to the mound for his first start of the season against Reds right-hander Graham Ashcraft.
There is a lot to love about the Brewers in this spot, and they seem to be flying under the radar at the moment. Ashby missed all of 2023 with a shoulder injury, but put up some solid strikeout numbers through 2021-2022.
Ashby averaged nearly 11 Ks/9 during that stretch, and now gets to face a Reds team that is currently dead last in strikeout rate. I would be all over his strikeout prop if there was more clarity about his pitch count for the evening.
Meanwhile, the Brewers are hitting .327 in 55 at bats as a team against Ashcraft, which includes a ridiculous 5-for-8 from Catcher William Contreras. Things can not get much better for Contreras tonight, as he draws an incredible matchup after a 4-5 5 RBI performance on Sunday afternoon.
The Reds offense will wake up eventually, but I do not like the state of their lineup at the moment. They are striking out far too much and now draw a tough left-hander with a lot of punchout ability.
I love the Brewers to take care of business in Game 1 of this four-game series, and I would suggest sprinkling the run line at +150 as well.
Pick: Brewers ML (-108)
Rays vs. Angels
By D.J. James
Tyler Anderson has had a nice start to his 2024 campaign with the Los Angeles Angels, but this team will not be able to keep racking up wins in the American League West. The Tampa Bay Rays should also be turning it around soon.
Zach Eflin is the correct starting pitcher on the mound for the Rays to get that winning streak moving. Eflin was electric in 2023 with a 50.4% groundball rate and 3.02 xERA. Even though he allowed six earned runs against the Blue Jays in game one, he bounced back to his 2023 form to hold the Texas Rangers to only one run over 6 1/3 innings pitched.
Yes, the sample size is small, but the Angels only hold a 73 wRC+ off of righties this season. In 2023, this team was at 100 wRC+. Bear in mind, Shohei Ohtani was in the lineup in that season, obviously.
The Rays crushed lefties in 2023 at a 120 wRC+. This lineup still contains the same players who helped make that happen. Yandy Díaz, Harold Ramírez, Randy Arozarena, and Isaac Paredes all hammered lefty pitching. Since Anderson did not keep the ball on the ground last year, the Rays could be hitting for power in this matchup.
Finally, as usual, there are plenty of reliable arms for Tampa Bay, when Eflin exits. This should provide another edge to the Rays over the Angels.
Take Tampa Bay to -155.
Pick: Rays ML (-145)
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