Best Bets for Diamondbacks vs Phillies Game 1 | MLB Playoffs Odds, Prediction & Pick
Getty Images. Pictured: Bryce Harper
MLB Best Bets for Monday, October 16
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 4:37 p.m. | ||
| 8:07 p.m. | ||
| 8:07 p.m. | ||
| 8:07 p.m. | ||
| 8:07 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Rangers vs. Astros
By Kenny Ducey
This game features two offenses that have surged this October, facing two pitchers with very complicated numbers.
Nathan Eovaldi, theoretically, has a leg up on Framber Valdez here, but it's tough to ignore Eovaldi's poor history against the Astros. He's been excellent to this point in the postseason with just two runs allowed in 13 2/3 innings, but Houston's offense will present his tallest task yet.
On the other side, Valdez is nowhere near the pitcher we've grown accustomed to watching, and he'll have to deal to a Rangers offense which finished fifth in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers this season.
On top of that, Texas is even more experienced against Valdez than Houston is against Eovaldi, and while the numbers don't pop as much, a .242 xBA is still noteworthy enough against a guy who has pitched to excellent xBA numbers for the last four seasons. The Rangers may have struggled to do damage against the ground-baller, but with more balls coming back into play with a higher trajectory, they've managed to get to him in 2023.
I lean toward the Astros in this matchup, but the best bet here is on the over. There's simply too much respect for Valdez baked into this line, and while I love how Eovaldi's pitched this year, the Astros' offense has been incredibly dangerous over the last two weeks.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-115)
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Diamondbacks vs. Phillies
By Tony Sartori
We should get a pitchers' duel to kick off the NLCS as Zac Gallen is set to go against Zack Wheeler.
Likely finishing just outside of the NL Cy Young race, Gallen produced a 17-9 record with a 3.47 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 34 starts this season. This success continued into the postseason, going 2-0 with 3.18 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.
While this Phillies lineup has been seeing the ball well, Gallen should be able to contain them. Through five career starts against Philadelphia, he is 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.
Like Gallen, Wheeler also put together a strong campaign as he went 13-6 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 32 starts. Also like Gallen, Wheeler's success has continued into the postseason as he is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.69 WHIP through two starts.
Regression should not be a concern with Wheeler, who ranks in the 83rd percentile or higher in xERA, average exit velocity, Chase%, BB% and Barrel%. Over the past two years, he is 2-1 against Arizona with a 2.00 ERA and 0.89 WHIP.
Since September 1, neither team cracks the top 10 of the league in OPS when facing right-handed pitching. I like the alternate under at seven at +114, but I think there is also value in 7.5 if you grab it at -115 or shorter.
Pick: Under 7 (+114)
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Diamondbacks vs. Phillies
By D.J. James
Most eyes to start this series will be on the big boppers in the Phillies lineup, like Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, and Kyle Schwarber. With that being the case, Brandon Marsh is often overlooked as he posted a .372 OBP and .830 OPS this season.
He strikes out a lot, but his Average Exit Velocity was 91.3 mph with a Barrel Rate of 9.1% and a Hard Hit Rate of 48.7%.
In addition, he seems to be turning it around at the dish in the playoffs, as he had five hits in eight plate appearances to finish off the series against the Braves. He held an .864 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, including an .853 mark from August 1 through the end of the regular season.
Marsh's total bases is set at only 0.5 and there is value on that at -135 or better.
Pick: Brandon Marsh Over 0.5 Total Bases (-110)
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Diamondbacks vs. Phillies
Honestly, this is kind of low for Zack Wheeler and is basically implying that the Diamondbacks are going to continue to hit the ball they way they have been throughout the entire postseason.
Wheeler has started 34 games this season and has gone at least 5 2/3 innings in 24 of those starts. Wheeler was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball this season, having the best WAR in the National League (5.9), fourth-best xERA (3.21) and the seventh-best Stuff+ (109).
The matchup here for Wheeler is fantastic as well because he is maybe the best pitcher in baseball against right-handed hitters, allowing only a .240 wOBA. The Diamondbacks were below average all season long against right-handed pitching and likely will only be able to platoon four left-handed bats into their lineup.
Wheeler does get slightly worse when he faces the order the third time through, allowing a .317 wOBA, but he averages 24.5 batters faced per start, so Rob Thomson has consistenly left him in to face the order the third time through.
With this being Game 1, the Phillies will not want to overextend their bullpen with there being an off day between Games 2 and 3, so I highly doubt that Wheeler is going to have a short leash.
Pick: Zack Wheeler Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-120)
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies
Even if Zac Gallen isn't all that effective on Monday night in Philadelphia, Torey Lovullo needs length out of his ace. He's already announced that Gallen will not pitch on short rest in this series, which lines Gallen up to throw in Game 5.
Lovullo doesn't have the same bullpen depth that Rob Thomson does on the other side either, so I fully expect to see Gallen pitch to the top Phillies hitters a third time through the order.
The Phillies' game plan last week against Braves ace Spencer Strider was to be very aggressive early in counts and try to avoid getting to two strikes. Given this approach, the Phillies are a pretty aggressive lineup that is likely to be swinging away early in counts before Gallen can get to his elite secondary stuff.
A lot of books are pricing Gallen at the 15.5 number juiced to the under, and the 15 is the key number here. You're betting on Gallen to throw at least five innings, which he easily managed to surpass in both of his two playoff outings against much more patient lineups in the Brewers and the Dodgers.
He also recorded more than 14.5 outs in both of those outings despite inconsistent command — Gallen walked five batters in his 11 1/3 playoff innings so far. The Diamondbacks lack of good lefty options in the 'pen likely means he faces Bryce Harper three times, which would get him at least 21 hitters.
As a result, I'd bet Gallen over 14.5 outs recorded at -175 or better.
Pick: Zac Gallen Over 14.5 Outs Recorded (-146)
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