MLB Best Bets Today: Rangers vs Astros Game 1
Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: Houston Astros pitcher Justin Verlander, who will start Game 1 of the ALCS against the Texas Rangers as we look at the MLB best bets for today on Sunday, October 15.
We're just moments away from first pitch of ALCS Game 1 at 8:15 p.m. ET from Minute Maid Park in Houston — and that means it's time to dive into everything you need to know about MLB best bets today for Rangers vs Astros in Game 1 of the 2023 ALCS.
Our MLB best bets today ALCS Game 1 feature two player props, including one on Verlander, plus a pick on the total, which is set at over/under 8.5 runs.
The Astros are the defending World Series champions and are favored in Game 1 behind future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander. The underdog Rangers are 5-0 so far in the postseason, beating both the Rays and Orioles as underdogs, and are primed to pull off another upset.
Here are our MLB best bets today for Rangers vs. Astros ALCS Game 1. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
MLB Best Bets Today: Rangers vs Astros ALCS Game 1
| Time (ET) | Best Bets |
|---|---|
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Rangers vs. Astros
By Kenny Ducey
For all the talk of Justin Verlander being one of the greatest postseason pitchers of all time, his recent results certainly do little to back that up. The veteran has posted a 4.40 ERA in his last three trips to the postseason, a number which is even helped by facing one of the worst postseason offenses in recent memory last year in the New York Yankees.
While I do like the Rangers in this spot, a different bet has caught my eye. Verlander finally took a step back at 40 years of age, most noticeably in the walk department as he issued a free pass to 6.7% of the batters he faced – his worst mark since 2017.
Verlander ended the year with three walks against Arizona and followed that up by walking three Twins in his scoreless Game 1 outing a week ago. Dating back to last postseason, he’s now walked nine batters in his last three playoff starts, hitting this number in all three starts.
Texas was fifth in the league this year when it came to walk rate, and through five postseason games it’s walked in more than 13% of its plate appearances. I anticipate Verlander’s control to continue being an issue, as it has been for most of the year, and against a team which has exhibited an incredible amount of patience he should walk multiple batters.
I'll play this up to -130.
Pick: Justin Verlander Over 1.5 Walks (-105)
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Rangers vs. Astros
By D.J. James
José Abreu hit three bombs off of a good pitching staff in the Astros' ALDS win over the Minnesota Twins. He will be facing a left-handed hitter on Sunday and he has historically thrived against southpaw pitching.
Since August 1, Abreu has been one of the best Astros hitters off of left-handed pitching. In that time, he had an xwOBA over .400 with five homers, the most on the team.
Jordan Montgomery is prototypically a ground-ball pitcher, but this year he ranked in the middle of the league with a 43.8% groundball rate. In addition, his Hard-Hit Rate only ranked in the 59th percentile, so this may be an area Abreu can get some loft on the ball and hit for extra base hits, if not homers. In the regular season, Montgomery gave up 18 homers, too.
The Rangers won't throw many southpaws in relief, but in general the bullpen held a 4.32 xFIP from August 1 through the end of the regular season and walked 9.2% of batters. This could put some strain on how many arms are used and could allow Abreu maybe another at-bat.
Look for Abreu to have a good day at the dish with Montgomery throwing.
Pick: José Abreu Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
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Rangers vs. Astros
Jordan Montgomery has pitched really well since coming over to the Rangers. The reason he's been so good is because his command has been incredible.
Since August 1st, he has a 1.73 BB/9 rate, 0.80 HR/9 rate, and 101 Location+ rating. One thing he's also been doing that has allowed him to be so effective is inducing ground balls. Montgomery's main three pitchers are sinker, changeup, curveball, so naturally all of those pitches are designed to be down in the zone.
When Montgomery was with the Cardinals earlier in the season, his groundball rate was at 44%, but now with the Rangers he's risen that up to 49%. The Astros finished third in baseball in wOBA against lefties and had the second-lowest ground-ball percentage, but in the one game this year where he faced Houston, he had a 68.4% ground-ball rate and only gave up two runs over six innings.
Justin Verlander has thrown over 200 postseason innings in his career and has a very solid 3.82 xFIP over all of these years. Even though he's maybe not pitching at the Cy Young-caliber level like he was last year, he still finished this season with a 3.66 xERA and in his last three starts has only given up one run, so he's starting to find his form.
Verlander faced the Rangers on September 6th, going seven innings and giving up four hits and two runs en route to 12-3 Astros win. Even though the Rangers are on fire, Verlander is in great form and is capable of shutting them down, just like he did on September 6th.
I only have 7.9 runs projected for this game, so I like the value on Under 9 runs at -120.
Pick: Under 9 (-120)
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