All 30 MLB teams are in action, with 16 games scheduled for Saturday, August 9, thanks to a Marlins vs. Braves doubleheader. Our MLB betting experts have scoured the odds board and made some MLB picks and predictions for today's games.
They've targeted two total bets, a pitcher's strikeout under, another outs under, and a home run pick.
So, continue reading as today's MLB best bets are below.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 2:05 p.m. | |
  | 7:15 p.m | |
  | 7:15 p.m. | |
  | 8:40 p.m. | |
  | 9:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Bet Labs' Astros vs Yankees Best Bet: Expect a Low-Scoring Game
By Bet Labs
This system targets unders in MLB series games (Game 2 or later) where both teams have winning records, suggesting quality pitching and competitive matchups.
However, public betting leans toward the over —likely expecting fireworks between top teams— which creates contrarian value on the under.
By capitalizing on low public support for the under (≤35%), the strategy fades public perception in favor of market inefficiencies, especially when bettors overestimate offensive output late in a series.
Pick: Under 8
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Charlie Wright's Marlins vs Braves Best Bet: Fade Struggling Fedde
I'm sticking with the Erick Fedde fade after we won this one in his last start.
With Fedde heading to a new team, particularly one that made some positive tweaks to another struggling pitcher (Joey Wentz), you'd like to see some notable changes.
He hasn't really done much different in two outings with Atlanta. He's bumped up the sinker usage from 36.2% to 43%, which makes some sense. It's his only pitch with a positive run value.
The issue is the sinker has given up a .281 BA and a hard-hit rate of nearly 50%. Plus, the increased sinker usage has come at the expense of the sweeper, which is his only decent whiff pitch. There's not much to point to as far as potential improvement.
This isn't a blind fade of Fedde, as he gets another tough matchup. Miami has been elite against righties recently.
The Marlins rank 4th in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ vs. RHP over the past 30 days. They have the 4th-lowest K% in that stretch. Fedde has struggled to get whiffs all season, and increased sinker usage isn't the answer. He's going to need to run extremely hot with BABIP luck to survive.
Pick: F5 Marlins Over 1.5 Team Total
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Derek Carty's Phillies vs Rangers: Value on the Under
By Derek Carty
THE BAT X is forecasting 16.14 pitching outs for Jacob deGrom compared to 18.04 pitching outs implied by the oddsmakers, so I believe there is value here.
If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 59% of the time, resulting in a 43% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $43.40.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Jacob deGrom Under 17.5 Outs
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Charlie Wright's Red Sox vs Padres Best Bet: King Should Not Go Long
This is mostly a bet against the workload for Michael King. He's missed two and a half months with a thoracic nerve issue that affected the strength of his shoulder.
Despite requiring a stint on the 60-day IL, King only made a single rehab appearance ahead of his MLB return. He tossed 61 pitches in 3.1 IP at Triple-A on Sunday. King was knocked around for six earned runs, and his fastball was down 1 mph.
Bringing King back after just one minor league start makes this outing seem like more of an extended rehab appearance instead of a full-fledged return.
San Diego could use quality innings in the rotation as they battle for a playoff spot. They already optioned trade acquisition JP Sears to the minors after he was hammered in his team debut. Yu Darvish has also struggled since returning from injury. Getting 3-4 decent innings from King would be valuable for the Padres, even if he isn't fully built back up.
Boston has the 7th-lowest K% vs. RHP over the past 30 days. Tonight's projected lineup has just three hitters with strikeout rates above 22% against righties this season.
The Red Sox knocked around Nick Pivetta last night, but he managed to get through six innings. San Diego was able to cover the final three innings with two relievers (Yuki Matsui and Sean Reynolds).
The Padres didn't play Thursday, so the rest of the bullpen outside of Matsui and Reynolds (who will probably get sent down for King) should be good to go..
Pick: Michael King Under 5.5 Strikeouts
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Grant Neiffer's Blue Jays vs Dodgers Best Bet: Great Matchup for Muncy
I'm taking Max Muncy tonight to hit a home run, as he is in a great spot against Toronto's Chris Bassitt.
Bassitt has been an absolute gas can for lefty power over the last three seasons, posting above-average splits.
Muncy is a great power bat, and isn't priced for the great matchup. I have the true odds on Muncy around +300.
Pick: Max Muncy Over 0.5 Home Runs
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