MLB Best Bets Today | Odds, Picks for Nationals vs. Phillies & Twins vs. Tigers (Wednesday, August 9)
Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Bailey Ober (Twins)
Wednesday in MLB features multiple day games and a key NL West battle between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks.
Dive in below for two MLB best bets for Wednesday.
Wednesday MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Nationals vs. Phillies
By D.J. James
MacKenzie Gore has made some positive strides for the Nationals, but he has to face a Phillies lineup that can torch left-handed pitching.
The Phillies have a 110 wRC+ off of southpaws in the last month. They also own a collective 11.2% walk rate and .765 OPS, which is impressive.
Brandon Marsh is on the IL, but the rest of the lineup has done pretty well without him. Bryce Harper owns a .411 xwOBA off of lefties in that same timeframe, while there are four others above .325.
Now, Gore has a 4.34 ERA, but his xERA is up near 5.00 and his average exit velocity is nearly 90 mph. His hard-hit rate is 44.5% and his walk rate is above 10%, which does not bode well against a patient lineup like the Phillies.
In relief, the Nats also only have three active arms below a 4.00 xFIP in the last month. Since Gore has a tendency to issue free passes and his pitches can accrue easily, this is another indication that Philly baserunners will be aplenty in this matchup.
Lastly, Gore has at least five walks in three of his last four appearances. This is awful. Harper and guys like Kyle Schwarber should be able to work the count and get to Gore early.
With that being the case, take their team total to 5 (-135). The Phillies should put together a good offensive day.
Pick: Phillies Over 4.5 (-138)
Twins vs. Tigers
By Tony Sartori
Right-hander Bailey Ober takes the mound for the Twins tonight and should be a good candidate to back in this matchup. Through 18 starts this season, Ober is 6-5 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.
Not only are his surface-level stats strong, but his underlying metrics suggest that regression is unlikely. Currently, the right-hander ranks in the 60th percentile or higher in Average Exit Velocity, HardHit%, xERA/xwOBA and xBA.
In his start against the Tigers earlier this season, Ober surrendered three runs on five hits while collecting eight strikeouts en route to Minnesota's 6-3 victory.
Meanwhile, right-hander Alex Faedo takes the mound for Detroit. It's been a poor sophomore campaign for Faedo, who's 2-4 with a 5.80 ERA through seven starts.
While it's a small sample size and his underlying metrics are not terrible, Ober still paces Faedo across the board. Not only will the Twins boast the pitching advantage, but they also feature the better lineup.
This season, they rank higher than the Tigers in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS and home runs.
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