We have a full 15-game slate on Wednesday, including Blue Jays vs Red Sox at 1:35 PM ET at Fenway Park, Mets vs Phillies at 6:40 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park, and Angels vs Athletics at 9:40 PM ET at Sutter Health Park.
Our experts have analyzed the matchups and found great options for Thursday, June 18.
Below are 5 expert MLB best bets today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each matchup our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:35 PM | |
  | 4:10 PM | |
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 7:40 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Sean Paul's Blue Jays vs Red Sox Best Bet
By Sean Paul
Don't sleep on the Blue Jays, who find themselves right in the AL Wild Card picture despite having a record under .500.
With a sweep in their sights, Toronto will hand the ball to right-hander Trey Yesavage, who held Boston to zero runs in 5 1/3 innings back in April.
In his full rookie campaign, Yesavage boasts a 3.78 ERA with a 3.15 xERA and 3.58 FIP. His last two starts were a nightmare, giving up 11 earned runs in just 11 2/3 innings.
Even worse, Yesavage walked 15 batters in his last 15 2/3 innings. Command is the one thing holding him back from becoming an ace, but he's still just 61 innings into his big league career. Opponents only muster a .195 xBA against him – among the best marks in MLB – but his inability to stay in the zone can haunt him.
Offensively, the Blue Jays are still looking to reclaim the magic from last year's postseason run.
They rank 21st in MLB with a 96 wRC+, but their 19% strikeout rate probably makes them a bit better than that. Putting the ball in play can save a team like Toronto, which ranks outside the top-20 in home runs and ISO.
The Blue Jays need Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to play like an MVP candidate – or at least an All-Star, and he's been nothing close to either. He has a 102 wRC+, three homers, and an ISO worse than Myles Straw.
When the game gets to the ninth inning, you might as well leave if you're the opposing fan base because Louis Varland is filthy. Varland stole the closer role from Jeff Hoffman and is pitching to an 0.92 ERA with a 12 K/9.
Opposing Yesavage is an MLB veteran, Sonny Gray. Gray has bounced back from a dicey 2025 season by pitching to a 3.03 ERA. The underlying numbers aren't quite as bullish, with his xERA at 4.11 and his FIP at 3.62.
The magic number for Gray? Six. Not six innings, six strikeouts. When Gray gets 6+ strikeouts, the Red Sox are 4-0, a number he eclipsed in two of his last four outings. Though it'll be difficult for Gray to reach that number against this high-contact Toronto lineup.
Fenway Park is usually one of the toughest places to play in the league for away teams. This year, it's a totally different story, as Boston is 12-23 at home.
That all stems from their offense not being able to hit at home. They have an 85 wRC+ at home, the third-worst in the league — ahead of the Angels and Rockies — the two worst teams in MLB.
In general, this Boston team lacks offensive talent. Willson Contreras is enjoying a career year, posting a 158 wRC+. He's one of three starters who have a wRC+ above 95 — Wilyer Abreu and Ceddane Rafaela are the other two.
Once Yesavage navigates through the meat of this Red Sox order, he can shut down the middle-to-bottom with relative ease.
I just think the Blue Jays have all the advantages here. They have the better pitcher, facing a team that struggles to hit at home, and their ability to put the ball in play can make life tough for Gray.
Pick: Blue Jays ML (-135 or Better)
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Tanner McGrath's Orioles vs Mariners Best Bet
This game triggered one of our Action PRO bet labs systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
The Silent Sharp Unders system targets regular-season MLB games where both teams are performing well, yet the total has quietly dropped from open to close.
These are games featuring competent, winning teams with recent success, stable weather conditions, and closing totals in a common scoring range.
Despite both teams showing strength, the market subtly favors the Under, likely due to matchup specifics, pitching, or pace factors.
By following this soft signal — when the public eye is more focused on win streaks and not totals — this system finds value in betting against inflated scoring expectations.
Zerillo projects just 7.15 runs for this game, as you can see in our new BARTOLO tool, available to PRO subscribers tomorrow:
Bryan Woo is having another fantastic season, with a 20% strikeout minus walk rate and earned run estimators in the low-threes. While he's off back-to-back blow-up starts (7 ER vs BAL, 5 ER vs DET), this is a good bounce-back spot for him against a Baltimore offense that projects as average against Southpaw pitchers.
While Shane Baz is struggling and the Seattle offense is heating up, these are also two top-10 bullpens, and Seattle is one of the worst run environments in the league, especially with the wind blowing in from left field.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-110 or Better)
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Kev Mahserejian's Mets vs Phillies Best Bet
Aaron Nola's season has been a roller coaster. He has four starts with at least five runs allowed and four starts with no more than two runs allowed. He had three straight starts from May 20 to June 2 without a walk allowed, then allowed six combined walks between his past two starts.
What is killing Nola is his walk rate against left-handed hitters (13.1%). He has an impeccable 1.4% against RHH, but that will do him little good against a Mets' offense with six LHH in their projected lineup.
Meanwhile, Sean Manaea takes the mound against a Phillies offense ranking sixth-worst against LHP. The Phillies just lost one of their best hitters against LHP in Adolis Garcia and are projected to start four LHH against Manaea. Manaea has a dominant split against left-handed hitters this season, with a 28.2% K-BB and 2.18 xFIP.
While Manaea has struggled on the road, he has been an improved SP in the past month. He has a 3.16 ERA, 2.99 xERA, and 3.59 xFIP in 25 2/3 IP since May 17. This point of demarcation may be arbitrary, but it is when he returned to pitching as a long-man/starter.
Neither the Mets nor the Phillies are hitting well this season, yet the Phillies are vulnerable beyond Nola. Their bullpen will likely be without multiple relievers today.
Chase Shugart, Tim Mayze, and Tanner Banks have all pitched in four of the past six days for Philadelphia. With Andrew Painter's outing cut short yesterday, they were all called upon for assistance.
Lower-leverage relievers are not often impactful, but their absence leaves Jose Alvarado as Philadelphia's only left-handed reliever. The Mets could stack lefties back-to-back without worrying about a reliever's eventual advantage.
Also, Philadelphia is without its second-best reliever, Brad Keller. If Aaron Nola gets knocked out early, this game could get ugly for the Phillies.
Pick: Mets ML (+100 or Better)
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Matt Trollo's Cardinals vs Royals Best Bet
By Matt Trollo
This is the second start in a row that I’m backing Matthew Liberatore, and lest you think he’s the reason, I’ll start right off with the notion that I consider Noah Cameron the better pitcher by nearly two-thirds of a run right now.
The short of it is that Cameron’s estimator range (3.48 FIP to 4.22 Bot ERA) beats Liberatore’s (4.14 xFIP to 5.43 xERA) by a significant margin. They have nearly the same strikeout and ground ball rates, but Cameron’s walk rate is exactly three points better, and his hard hit rate is exactly five points lower.
However, it’s every other aspect of this game where I favor the Cardinals, with the exception of the Royals being at home, which is of little value, though not none.
The Cardinals have a 17-point better wRC+ against LHP this year. By projected lineups, that extends to 21 points since last year. Over the last month, expected St Louis starters beat expected Kansas City starters by 48 points of wRC+.
That’s a large edge, which I give the road team by 20 points.
The Cardinals also project as the better defense by 19 FRV and the better base-running team by 3 BRR.
Lastly, St. Louis' bullpen estimators average more than a run and a third better than Kansas City's over the past month. BARTOLO only sees a three-team gap on the season, but still in St. Louis’s favor.
I’m backing the Cardinals at a dog price and endorse doing so to -110, though dropping to half a unit if it passes the even money threshold.
Pick: Cardinals ML (-110 or Better)
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Frank Ammirante's Angels vs A's Best Bet
Jose Soriano is having a nice year, but he hasn't been the same lately. In his last nine starts, Soriano has a 4.74 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP with a 22.3% strikeout rate and a 13.2% walk rate in 49.1 innings. The underlying metrics don't look much better, as highlighted by a 4.61 SIERA.
While Soriano has pitched well against the A's this year, this will be the third time that they've faced him this season. That kind of familiarity can give the A's the edge here. We also have to acknowledge that Soriano is banged up with a chest issue, so it remains to be seen how that can affect him on the mound.
On the other side, Gage Jump is finding his groove in the big leagues. After an underwhelming debut in which he allowed four earned runs over five innings, Jump has allowed only four earned runs in his last three starts, spanning 18 1/3 innings.
That's why I'm giving the A's the edge on the mound.
At a -130 price at home against an abysmal Angels team, this looks like the right side.
Pick: A's ML (-140 or Better)
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